Trading-wise, the summer of 2015 has been tough to figure out. The incredibly tiresome international break decimated league fixtures for much longer than everyone feared and they’re only just now returning to normal.

The much bigger story, however, has been the downturn in goals. If you have any interest in betting or trading football you need to be aware of what is going on at the moment, so keep reading.

My own trading has been quite slow. During June and July (so far) I have traded just 18 ‘Batman & Robin’ matches. This has been partly due to the surprising lack of fixtures, but also because there simply have not been enough goals about. From those 18 trades I have banked a profit of 7.9pts at 13.7% ROI. That’s an outstanding number and I am delighted that my disciplined approach has paid huge dividends.

From ‘Daily Best Bets’ over at Value Football Betting I have picked out 12 straight bets. These have returned a profit of 8.3pts at a staggering 69% ROI. The lack of goals has certainly affected my bet selection there, with 9/12 coming in the match odds market and only 3/12 in goals markets.

Taking Daily Best Bets as a whole, the match odds markets have returned 15pts profit while the goals markets have made a loss of approximately 8pts. That tells a story in itself, but what is going on?

I can put my success so far this summer down to one thing; the new Team Statistics Trends pages at Goal Profits. I identified early on that there was an issue with goals, adjusted my trading/betting and the profits have continued to flow.

[heading]So what exactly is Team Statistics Trends telling us?[/heading]

Firstly, there are 20 summer leagues covered by the Team Statistics software. Over the past decade, more than 50% of matches played during the summer have gone over 2.5 goals except for 2014 which returned 49%. However, 2015 is currently running at just 45.8%. That’s a massive 11% drop in goals against the ten year average. Ouch!

Take the Swedish Superettan, for example. I have had great success trading there in the past and yet this year I haven’t touched it once. Why? Team Statistics Trends is showing almost 18% fewer goals against the ten year average and 19% against last season. Before I had access to these numbers I may well have gone in and lost money. What a life saver!

Looking at all 20 leagues again, half-time 0-0 scorelines are up by almost 5% against the ten year average, as are full-time 0-0 results. Both teams to score are down too. For traders and bettors who are looking for goals, it’s a sorry state.

And if you lay the draw, you don’t escape the bad news either; full-time draws are up by a huge 9.2% against the ten year average.

Suddenly I am looking at my own trading and betting results again, delighted at how I have managed to achieve such returns amidst the goal drought. Team Statistics has played such a major role in that.

Team Statistics Trends shows which leagues are performing bets in terms of correct score ‘target score’ hits and that has helped me to narrow down the number of fixtures I research. I am then able to focus much more on a smaller number of potential trades, then pick out those which have the very best chance of making a profit.

And it works! Of the last 10 correct score trades emailed out to members, 6 ended bang on a target score and another 2 were just a goal out. A total of 11.4pts profit and 36% ROI. Thanks, Team Stats!

[heading]What is yet to come this summer?[/heading]

There are two possible scenarios which I see happening:

1) We end up with by far the worst summer on record for goals

2) There’s a big correction between now and the end of summer

If the first scenario happens I am confident that my disciplined approach of only trading the very best matches will continue to generate a return.

However, should there be a big rise in goal numbers – and the bounce could certainly happen – we will likely see profits accelerate. I do not anticipate anywhere near enough goals to get back to the average but a decent increase will make football trading and betting that much easier for us all.

 
[heading margin_top=”0″]Take Your Football Trading to the Next Level[/heading]

Get full and immediate access to Team Statistics, Team Statistics Trends, trading chat room and more.

Readers of the “Lay Back & Get Rich” blog have voted Goal Profits as the “Best Trading System 2015”. I have very proudly added this award to the “Best Football System 2014” and “Best Product 2014” Betting Oscars won last year, along with Cashmaster’s “Trading Service of the Year”.

Thank you to everyone who voted, it’s very much appreciated. Click here to read the full award announcement.

It’s been a terrific week at Goal Profits and Value Football Betting. We held a couple of free social events for members to get together and discuss trading. Both Kevin and I were on hand to offer advice to all who needed it and we were blown away by the many success stories shared by members.

A number of members have cut their 9-5 job down to part-time hours, with trading income more than making up the shortfall. To be helping so many achieve their trading dreams is an incredible feeling and it spurs Kevin and me on to improve our football trading community even further.

The winter leagues are under way and it won’t be long before there’s enough form to go on. The brand new Goal Profits Matrix has started well and we have plenty of new features still to come for both sites. Very exciting times for members!

Understanding the difference between betting and laying is vital for anyone who wants to make a living from football trading.

Betfair is the main football trading website and this article will use screenshots to help newcomers understand exactly what they need to know about how to lay a bet.

Backing and laying for profit is essential to become a successful football trader, so let’s go through step-by-step exactly what laying on Betfair is and how this kind of bet works.

How to lay a bet

A lay bet allows a football trader to play the role traditionally taken by the bookmaker.

This means you are effectively betting against an event happening, with another person taking the odds you agree for the bet.

For example – let’s say you are interested in betting on the winner of the Premier League.

Back and lay betting explained

Arsenal are the current favourites to win the Premier League at the time of writing, with back odds of 2.48, meaning a bet of £10 would result in £14.80 profit if Arsenal did win the title.

When you place a back bet, you are betting on something to happen.

A lay bet is therefore the exact opposite of this – so you are betting on something NOT to happen.

Arsenal’s lay odds are 2.52. In fraction terms, both back and lay bets are set around the 6/4 mark.

Back and lay meaning in betting

A lay bet against Arsenal is betting that another team – not Arsenal – will win the Premier League.

If Arsenal win the Premier League, your bet loses. If Arsenal do not win the league, your bet wins.

That, effectively, is back and lay bets explained – it really is that simple.

So in this scenario, you do not think that Arsenal will win the Premier League, so you want to bet against them.

Placing a lay bet

When placing a lay bet, there are two figures to keep in mind, both of which are shown on Betfair.

The first of these is payout – the amount of money you could win on your bet, including your stake – and the second is liability.

Liability is the opposite of payout – the figure shows how much you could lose on your lay bet.

Therefore, liability is the amount of risk you are taking on by placing a lay bet.

In this example, a £10 stake lay on Arsenal winning the Premier League has a payout of £25.20.

 
The liability is set at £15.20.

This means that for every £10 you want to bet against Arsenal winning the Premier League, you stand to lose £15.20 if they do actually win the title.

A £100 lay bet against Arsenal would mean liability of £152 if they were to win the league.

When placing a lay bet, your liability is always removed from your account balance as Betfair has to assume the worst case scenario – that you lose your bet.

You can therefore never risk losing more than the money you already have in a Betfair account.

Once the Premier League winner has been decided, if Arsenal have not won the title and your lay bet is a winner, your payout and liability will both be returned into your Betfair account balance.

 
You can keep track of your ongoing back and lay wagers on Betfair by clicking the My Bets button.

This screen shows you how much you stand to win on the back and lay bets you have placed via the Betfair exchange – meaning you can always keep track of exactly where your money is staked.

 
On the My Bets screen you can also see the other bets you have placed in Betfair’s other areas away from the exchange.

Incidentally, the cash out function many bookmakers now offer as standard is effectively a lay bet against the back bet you have already placed to ensure you win your bet no matter what happens.

Backing and laying for profit

Backing and laying for profit is right at the heart of how to succeed as a football trader.

The best way to make big money from football trading is to back a bet when it is available at high odds, then lay the same bet when the price has come down.

For instance, Leicester City were available to win the Premier League at high odds at the start of the season, whereas their odds are now much shorter due to their surprising performance.

Let’s take a look at an example of how backing and laying for profit works in practice, using the Euro 2016 tournament.

 
As you can see above, the favourites for the title are the traditional powerhouses of European football, with Germany, France and Spain currently the shortest priced teams to win Euro 2016.

But it is down the list of countries that is particularly interesting to back and lay in betting – Iceland.

Iceland at Euro 2016

Iceland were one of the major surprises during qualifying, finishing in second place in Group A, which meant 2014 World Cup semi-finalists the Netherlands were knocked out.

 
Iceland were available at gigantic odds at the start of the long qualifying process, with many shrewd football traders placing back bets on the team to win the tournament.

As Iceland recorded a string of stunning results in qualifying, including wins home and away against the Netherlands, their odds to win Euro 2016 started to steadily drop.

They therefore became a fantastic back-to-lay opportunity, with many traders who backed Iceland earlier at odds of, for example 500/1, choosing to lay them at shorter odds to lock in a big profit.

 
Iceland have drawn Portugal, Hungary and Austria in Group F of Euro 2016, with the top two from the group going through to the next round, as well as the best third-placed team.

It will be a test for Iceland, but their fantastic success in qualifying shows how capable they have become at international level in recent years.

Greece’s historic success at Euro 2004 shows that smaller countries can thrive at the European Championships and, even with the new reorganisation to a 24 team event, Iceland have a chance.

 
Iceland are currently priced on the Betfair exchange at 100 to win Euro 2016, meaning a £10 back bet on Iceland would result in a profit of £990 should they take the title.

If Iceland qualify from Group F it is likely these odds would drop substantially, meaning it would then be possible to place a lay bet against Iceland, locking in a good amount of guaranteed profit.

The further Iceland go into Euro 2016, the more their odds come down, providing more chances to guarantee a sizable profit for traders who have placed back bets on them to win the title.

Guaranteeing your profits from football trading

Making guaranteed profit is the ultimate goal of the football trader and the best way to make cash.

There is always some level of risk involved in football trading, but by sticking to the fundamentals of backing and laying for profit it is possible to earn big sums of money on Betfair’s exchange.

Follow our advice and you will soon be on the way to making regular cash from football trading.

Click here for more information.

It’s not easy to explain what I do. The word “trader” is vague enough as it is. People have overheard trainer on more than one occasion. The second question, seeking to clarify what I’ve just said, would bring me to answer: “sports trader”, which would then lead people to reply with another question – “so you are a gambler?”

And then I can start explaining what the differences between the two are. In my opinion the difference is huge. Another option would just be to agree. “Yeah, that’s a gamble, perhaps more calculated than others”. However, I am not happy with that term “gambling” and the prejudice it may come with.

So why is sports trading different than gambling? If you search this topic online you will find out many different ideas and opinions on the difference between the two. It is entirely up to one to decide how he feels about it. For me at least, and for other people who call themselves traders, I think it is safe to say the difference is in the mindset and discipline, the approach to the money and the thought on long term.

The trader uses team statistics (the most powerful tool I have come across for the purpose of trading football), like a stock market trader might use the history of shares, and news/information available to assess movement. This is where I feel I can compare to different career paths people chosen and why sometimes I will get into a discussion with people who fail to see the difference between trading and gambling.

Firstly, in gambling you choose the outcome (team/horse/result) and you wait for it to happen, that is it.

Sports’ trading is a lot more like financial trading. Preparation and hard work can reduce the reliance on luck – that’s why trading is not gambling.

However, financial trading does not appeal to me personally because I feel that as an average person I may not know of things brewing up in companies that may affect the share price. I have no interest in the financial markets. In sports, on the other hand, I feel that I have the understanding on how the game works. I also have a lot of information on how the sports trading markets work. I can see the starting points, the great entry points and the good exit points. The different scenarios are well known to me and well, I know that luck is also needed.

So if luck’s needed, then I am gambler, no? Well this will come down to another point of view about life in general.

Some don’t believe in luck, and that’s fine, you can call it whatever you want.

When comparing trading to an office job for example, which has potential to develop into a more meaningful, better paid position at well-structured company – of course many people would say you will climb up by graft and hard work. You work hard, you impress your superiors and you get promoted to a better job.

I believe that ‘luck’ or whatever people wish to call, is also required for developing inside the most structured of companies. You can work hard and not get the break. It happens to a lot of people around you.

If one considers a more risky career path, owning your own business is a perfect example. This is my own personal background; so I feel a lot more comfortable comparing it to trading.

I was a bar owner in London for 6 years. It was hard work and rewarding in many ways as well. And the risks involved in this business are very similar to the risks in trading. There are SO many variables! This would apply to almost any small business, privately owned in a capitalistic environment.

You have a risk reward and when it is analysed the financial rewards from trading can be much higher. The main things being financial investment and attachment, a business requires 100% attention whereas with the trading you can choose when you want to trade.

That last point is huge for me and the main reason I chose a different career path recently.

I am sure this is a topic of discussion to many traders, gamblers, people who are interested in sport and people who are against the whole idea of risking money! These are however my personal opinion and mean absolutely no disrespect to anyone who thinks otherwise.

Guest author: Jonny

Betfair is full of very clever traders whose sole aim is to take your money.

In order to take their money and be profitable, you need to be smarter and more disciplined

In this article I will explain exactly what ‘football trading’ is, how trading differs from betting and what you need to get started.

Football Trading: The 90 Minute Stock Market

From a trading point of view, football is nothing more than a 90 minute stock market.

Let’s say that Dave is a financial trader looking to buy shares in Coca-Cola.

He checks the financial history of the company, strength of the competition, current market conditions and so on.

Based on all the data he can find, Dave makes an informed judgement about future profit and growth potential.

He looks at the share price and, if it shows some value, he decides to buy.

If Coca-Cola release some good news – perhaps a new flavour which starts selling very well – the price rises and Dave can sell his shares.

The difference between the price Dave bought his shares at and the price he sold them for is his profit.

Switch out Coca-Cola for Manchester City and the same criteria apply.

As a football trader, Dave checks previous performance, strength of the opposition, recent form and any other useful statistics that he can find.

In exactly the same way, he makes an informed judgement about Manchester City’s likely performance in their next match and looks for value in the various markets.

It may be that Dave expects Manchester City to score the first goal of the game during the first half.

He then has a number of markets he can choose to trade in; match odds, next goal, half-time score and many more.

Each of these markets lasts for a maximum of 90 minutes and Dave will know the outcome of his investment in that time.

It’s as if a stock market has been condensed into a very small amount of time.

How Does Football Trading Differ From Betting?

With most bets you have two possible outcomes; win or lose.

If you go for something like a “draw no bet” then there is also a third possibility, but the vast majority of bets do not fall into this category.

There are lots of different types of football bet available at bookmakers.

When you trade, however, there are always three possible results; win, lose or scratch.

A scratch trade is one in which you neither make a profit nor a loss and it is vital to the long-term success of a trader.

Why?

Trading is all about avoiding losses.

A trader knows that profits will take care of themselves, but avoiding losses is key to long-term success.

This is a strange concept for most who are new to trading because their mindset is geared up towards winners, winners and more winners.

They look for lots and lots of trades every day, assuming that the more trades they pile into the more profit they’ll make.

Wrong!

The more trades you pile into, the more likely you are to hit a loser and, depending on the strategy, that might wipe out the profit from two or three successful trades.

Trade selection, patience and discipline – all those boring old things – are absolutely vital if a trader is to be successful.

I surveyed Goal Profits members towards the end of 2014 and was astounded to discover that there were none under the age of 25.

Not a single one.

Once I thought that through though, it made sense.

Young guys (lads!) like the adrenalin rush of crazy accas; they’re not interested in long-term profits.

Financial stability is far from the minds of most young men.

They want to take risks and have fun!

A trader will look back over a year and be delighted to see steady bank growth, whereas a bettor will remember that one great acca win but ‘forget’ about all the losers.

The difference is mindset.

Which would you prefer? Steady bank growth? I thought so!

How Does a Trader Avoid Losses?

There are a number of ways in which a football trader avoids losses.

No-one can avoid them completely, of course, but we should all be doing whatever we can to avoid as many as possible.

Match Selection

This is absolutely vital.

For example, the Team Statistics software at Goal Profits generates a shortlist of possible trades each day for every trading strategy.

They all pass a basic set of filters, then members use Team Stats to pick out the strongest fixture.

It might be that a member can only trade at a certain time of the day which instantly narrows down the list, then Team Stats guides him or her to the strongest trade.

Discipline

This is most definitely a part of the match selection process and a trader without discipline will soon be a trader without a trading bank!

Football trading is not for entertainment; it is not something to keep the boredom away on a Saturday afternoon.

There will be days when each of the fixtures on the shortlist has something which doesn’t quite look right.

It may be that the underdog has been performing above themselves recently, or that the first half goal probability isn’t as high as you’d ideally like.

In this situation, a successful trader does not trade.

Yes, many of the dropped trades will end up being winners but that makes no difference whatsoever.

If there’s a good reason not to trade, you don’t trade.

Win or lose, it doesn’t matter; you made the correct decision.

You don’t kick yourself, you don’t get mad, you applaud your discipline knowing that long-term it will see you right.

Trading Plan

Once you have been through your shortlists for the day and picked out the very strongest fixtures, you have your trading plan and it’s pretty much set in stone.

Once you are more experienced you may wish to get involved with a small number of in-play trades, but in-play is an incredibly easy way to lose money so be careful!

If none of the fixtures on your trading plan end up being tradeable, so be it.

There will be more tomorrow… and the next day… and the next day.

If you hit a loss or two, so be it. Bad days happen to everyone.

You absolutely do not chase losses with weaker trades you earlier discarded.

That sounds obvious now, but it’s incredibly easy to get caught up in during the heat of the moment.

I have seen a number of ‘traders’ suddenly make excuses why a weaker trade is now ok to get involved with and that’s madness.

Take the loss, learn what you can from it and come back again tomorrow with a clear mind.

Be smart!

Patience

This doesn’t just mean waiting for strong trading opportunities.

Once you have found a strong trade and conditions are right, you may decide to wait before opening your position.

Let’s look at an example of a first half lay the draw trade.

It may be 2.80 to lay the draw at kick-off, but after 20′ you may well be able to lay at 2.00.

Even at small £10 stakes your liability will fall from £18 laying at kick-off down to £10.

But that’s not all; you will be able to look at the in-play stats before entering your trade and if there have not been many shots or corners, you may decide to leave the trade alone and save yourself from a potential loss.

Even better, once a goal is scored the price will rise a lot further from 2.00 than it will from 2.80 and that means a lot more profit.

Of course, it can’t all be good news.

In this case, you will be reducing the time window you have to find a goal by almost half.

You may also find that you miss out on a number of planned trades when early goals go in, but that’s ok; nothing lost.

As with all aspects of trading, it will come down to your personal preference as to how you decide to get involved.

There are plenty of options and methods to suit your own trading style.

Most people think about “trading out” during a game, but you must always consider “trading in” too in order to lower liabilities and increase profits.

It makes sense!

Making Scratch

Let’s stick with that first half lay the draw trade for a moment.

Let’s assume that a strong home favourite has gone 1-0 up and there’s ten minutes until half-time.

If you’re betting, you have a tense time until the whistle goes but a trader is always in control.

It’s not likely that the underdog will get the score back to 1-1 before the break, but it does happen.

The safest thing to do is back the draw enough so that there is no liability left should an equaliser go in.

It won’t cost much, but it will save a losing trade if the worst should happen.

Remember, trading is about avoiding losses and there is no excuse to have one from this situation.

Taking a Profit

Of course, you may decide to back the draw a little more so that it also has a profit.

It will reduce the amount of green on the home team being ahead at half-time, but you won’t mind what happens because you will have a guaranteed profit locked in.

What a fantastic position to be in; not even at half-time and you’ve made a profit no matter what!

The Other Difference Between Betting and Trading

This is the bugbear of most people as they move from betting to trading… time.

Yes, trading takes a bit more time than betting – of course it does – but you get so much more control over your money at risk that a bit of effort is well worth putting in.

Let’s be honest though, football trading really doesn’t take too long at all.

I mean, an entire match is only 90 minutes and many football trading strategies focus on one half only which immediately cuts that in half.

Once your trading position is open, what do you have to do anyway?

You’re usually waiting on a goal so you can go watch TV, read a book or do some housework.

A score site such as Flashscores will tell you when a goal goes in, then you can tend to your trade.

You can even download the Flashscores app to your phone and go outside to wash the car.

With Betfair on your phone, you might not even need to come back inside the house!

“I don’t have time to trade” is such a poor excuse, yet I hear it all the time from those looking for a reason to make quitting acceptable.

If you really want to be successful at trading, you’re not going to quit but find a way to make it work for you.

Why is Market Liquidity Important for Football Trading?

Liquidity is the amount of money available in the market and it varies greatly from match to match.

It is absolutely vital when you wish to get out of a trade.

Match odds markets tend to have the best liquidity and in bigger leagues, such as the English Premier League, it is never a problem.

There is always money waiting to be matched on both sides of the market – back and lay – so you can get in and out of trades whenever you like.

In smaller leagues, perhaps English League One, liquidity will never be as good.

It may be enough on a Tuesday evening when there are not a huge number of fixtures, but at 3pm on a Saturday there will be lots of bigger leagues sucking up the available money.

You may well be able to get in and out of trades with smaller stakes, but you may need to wait a few minutes to be matched.

There will be times when a goal will go against you while you wait, so bear that additional risk in mind.

Smaller markets in smaller leagues are even more troublesome.

The first half match odds market – known on Betfair as “Half Time” – is not nearly as popular as match odds and, therefore, liquidity will never be as good.

Whereas you might get away with the League One match odds market on a Saturday afternoon, first half match odds will be far more difficult. Perhaps even impossible.

If in doubt, stay out.

Getting Started with Football Trading

Football trading is a skill which takes time to learn.

You don’t throw £1,000 at the stock market and expect to be rich tomorrow, so it baffles me why so many expect that with any other form of trading.

Once you get some experience and develop your trading skills, then profits will follow.

The good news is that Goal Profits takes a huge amount of that pain away.

It is always much easier to learn how to trade when you have proven strategies, all the stats you need and more support than you could ever ask for.

We have been voted “Best Product” in both 2014 and 2015 and there’s no reason why you’d go to learn from the second best, right? That would be nuts!

Goal Profits is not the sort of place where you’re given a few eBooks then left to get on with it yourself.

We don’t email out a couple of tips and then disappear when they go in-play.

We trade side-by-side with members in the chat room and if you’re not free at that time, no problem.

Team Stats covers more than sixty league worldwide and produces a daily shortlist of fixtures for every single strategy.

You can trade whichever strategies you prefer at times to suit you.

Perfect for everyone!

If you get stuck, you have continual access to professional traders who will help you.

The Goal Profits community is all about helping members to achieve their Betfair trading goals.

With 'GP Launchpad' guiding you right from day one, you could go from a complete beginner to competent trader just as others have.

In March I spent far more time on my own trades than I have been doing recently and that certainly helped make March into a pretty good month.

The first thing you will notice is that I didn’t complete my 3 cycles.

Click to enlarge

That doesn’t matter at all.I will start again in April.

The headline figures in March were as follows:-

I normally look for an average profit of +0.5 points per trade, so in March I was able to increase the norm by 28%.

The big losers in March were:-

The big winners in March were:-

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

For April I will drop Early Bird as I have now had 2 consecutive bad months from that particular system.

I will stick with SH00T and Easy Rider and see if I can pull those two round.

As usual the In-Play came in well with +11.5 points profit from just 5 days play.

Kevin

Those who have mastered the skill of correct score trading on Betfair find it to be one of the most enjoyable ways to trade football. In this post I will talk about how to find suitable matches to trade, how to trade them and how to control your emotions when things don’t go to plan.

​The sections are titled as follows:

Introduction to Correct Scores

This is an exciting and very profitable area of football trading.

Correct score trading strategies can be really quite simple or as complicated as you wish to make them and I guess that’s the beauty of this particular market on Betfair; it is incredibly flexible.

As traders we are all different.

Whereas one person may be comfortable with taking a risky approach in order to make bigger profits, another may prefer much less risk but smaller profits on a more regular basis.

In order to have profit (green) somewhere on a Betfair market, there also has to be liability (red).

Only you know what level of risk/reward you are comfortable with, so take some time to figure it out.

How much red are you prepared to risk in order to potentially reward yourself with green?

We all love big wins, but are you able to take a bigger loss on the chin too?

If not, scale the risk back a bit.

There are plenty of options to suit everyone, that’s for sure.

Achieving a 'green screen' often returns a terrific profit!

It only takes one big target score hit to make an entire weekend profitable.

Of course, without being able to predict football scores in the future, you don’t know in advance which match will be the big winner.

Your aim as a trader is to get away with scratch trades wherever possible and bank small profits when opportunities arise, while waiting for a match to go exactly as you predict.

Once the big one hits, it’s all worthwhile.

Correct Score Predictions

There are literally dozens, if not hundreds, of ways to select matches for trading.

They all revolve in some way around past performance, whether it be recent form or previous seasons.

I don’t have a crystal ball which I can use as a football scores predictor and I’m assuming that you don’t either, so we have to work with what we have.

Seasonal performance is the most obvious method of finding matches to trade.

You will look for teams which perform consistently, perhaps scoring plenty of goals or keeping lots of clean sheets.

That will give you a pointer as to what you can expect in future fixtures.

Remember that football is a wonderfully random game, so predicting correct scores is not easy.

Would you would predict the final score of Arsenal v Crystal Palace the same as Arsenal v Manchester United?

Probably not, but both could end up with exactly the same result.

Oh... and Barcelona always score right? Wrong!​

Even the best teams have a 0-0 result now and again.

A correct score prediction formula which tends to be popular is looking at recent matches only, often known as "short form".

No team goes through an entire season playing at their very best; they go through periods of high performance but will suffer dips in form here and there.

The idea here is to find teams which are both playing well and anticipating that it will continue into the next match.

Many traders use head-to-head results, known as “H2H”.

The idea is that lightning often does strike twice but, with managers and players moving around so much these days, it's not a method I rely on myself.

It does give me some added confidence if I see that last season a match ended on a score I’m targeting this time around, but that's about it.

Deciding on Target Scores​

Once you have an idea of which fixtures have matched up two consistent teams, you need to decide on the scores you are going to target.

Remember that this is trading and not correct score betting.

It is really difficult to predict the final score of a match so you are not going to land on a target score time after time.

Rather than try to predict actual full-time results of matches - which is ridiculously difficult - it is much more profitable to trade around profits on target scores.

As long as you get near a target score or two at a good time in the match, that will be enough.

It allows you to use the green built up on target scores to guarantee a profit.

Big wins are nice, but trading is all about controlling losses so that those big greens do more than simply cover other reds.

You may decide to go after two, three or more scores in the same match so that you have a bit of a scatter gun approach.

For example, if you think that the final score will be 2-0 you may decide to cover 2-1 and 3-0 as well.

When the home team go 2-0 up you have a third goal covered either way.

No stress there!

If you can find a fixture which has a strong chance of both teams scoring, you can ignore 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 0-1, 0-2, 0-3.

This narrows down your target score options significantly.

On the other hand, if there is a strong chance of both teams not scoring you can ignore 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3, etc.

Steve Brown 
Professional Trader

There used to be a huge amount of work involved in finding suitable matches to trade.

I would spend at least 40 hours every single week going through Soccerway, keeping various spreadsheets up to date and calculating the trading stats I needed.

It was a full-time job in itself just doing the research before I had traded a single match!

In early 2013 I decided that enough was enough.

Trading is much more enjoyable than number crunching, plus my boredom often led to errors.

When your money is on the line, the last thing you can afford is inaccurate data!​

I began designing Team Statistics software which automatically calculated every single stat needed for trading football on Betfair.

Since then, Team Stats has grown into an incredible resource.

It automatically finds matches suitable for trading from over 60 worldwide leagues every single day; everything from simple lay the draw strategies to more complex correct score trading.

There are more than 30 different league tables for all of those leagues which break down performance and help members find the very best trades each day.

Team Stats has revolutionised my life and that of many Goal Profits members too.

Correct Score Trading Strategies

Once you have figured out a set of target scores for a particular match you need to decide on a trading strategy.

Here is where your own personal attitude to risk reward comes into play.

Sure, it’s easy to back some target scores for £10 and then lay 0-0 so that one goal gives you a free bet, but how will you feel when a match ends 0-0?

And sometimes it will!

There are a number of ways to reduce that risk, the easiest one being to do nothing.

If you back your target scores for £10 and do nothing, the worst possible loss is £10.

It does turn your trade into a bet, but I would prefer that to laying 0-0 and suffering a huge loss.

Ideally, what you need is something in between ‘huge risk’ and ‘not enough risk’.

As I said earlier, you must have risk somewhere in order to have reward on your target scores.

Obviously I can’t give away Goal Profits trading strategies away here but I can give you a few pointers.

Let’s go back to the example before where you are targeting 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0.

There are a lot of scores there which you believe are not likely, such as 0-1, 1-0, 0-2 and so on.

You would be able to lay some of them for much smaller amounts in order to spread risk around.

And remember, every lay will add more profit to your target scores.

You could also use other Betfair markets to cover your liability.

Perhaps you believe that both teams will score or that the match will end with over 2.5 goals.

Also, of course, you could wait to see how the match develops and take advantage of lower prices.

You can expect the 0-0 price at half-time to be roughly a third of what it was at kick-off if there are no first half goals.

There is only half the match left to play, but that’s a significant saving.

Plenty of options to suit everyone, so take time to work out what's most comfortable for you.

We use a number of different methods at Goal Profits, with members all having their own favourites.

As always with trading – especially correct score trading – there is no ‘right’ or ‘wrong’.

Whatever works for you is the way to go.

The Mindset of a Trader

Mindset and attitude; get those right and you’re already ahead of the game.

1) Losses happen, get over it.

You chose to trade the match, you chose to create the liability, now take responsibility for your actions.

The referee missed a clear penalty? Tough.

The striker missed from six yards? Tough.

This is football and those things happen – a lot.

It might sound harsh, but from day one you must accept that losses are going to happen.

If you’re praying hard for a goal on 85’ then you’re either staking too much or creating too much liability.

You’re fully in control of both.

If a loss is not controlled, that’s your fault; you put the red there.

Don’t play the victim when you were in control the whole time.

It makes no sense.

Losing trades are completely unavoidable and everyone will suffer them.

You may hit a 0-0 in your first trade, that’s life.

Don’t hit a few losses, throw a tantrum and give up.

That is the only sure way to never, ever make a profit.

Remember that trading is long-term; many months and years.

Deal with losses in a controlled manner.

Analyse your trading moves, look for red flags you may have missed, learn from any mistakes.

Get all the positives you can from the experience and move on to the next trade.

2) Manage your expectations.

Betfair is full of very clever traders just waiting to take your money.

In order to win you have to outsmart them more often than they get the better of you – and that ain’t easy!

If it was, do you think there would be many people going to work next Monday?

Trading is a skill which you will learn over time.

You will not crack it in a week, a month or perhaps even six months.

It might take years to get to a level you’re happy with.

If you think that after reading a couple of eBooks you’ll start winning more money than you can count, you’re living in a dream world.

It’s just not reality.

With patience, determination and a long-term view you have every chance of realising your full potential.

I have heard every excuse in the book, believe me.

“It’s too complicated“,

“I don’t have the time“,

“I don’t think I can do it“.

Everyone can improve their trading over time but it requires positive mental attitude (PMA).

If your glass is already half empty, top it up!

Some don’t even bother making an excuse before disappearing into the shadows, never to be heard from again.

As sure as winners never quit, quitters never win.

The only certainty you create by throwing in the towel is never, ever winning.

How disappointing must that feel?

Go into this with a positive frame of mind and keep it up throughout.

Don’t get carried away by wins, don’t let losses spill your half-full-glass and over time you will succeed.

Keep the PMA flowing, continue to make good trading decisions and the target scores will come.

A number of trades will end with scratch or a small loss and that’s fine; your PMA tells you that you are another trade closer to the next big target score.

You will never be able to make the correct decision every single time but you can make decisions that you are happy with.

The rest is up to the 22 players on the pitch.

Football Trading Community

Team work makes everything easier and football trading is no different.

As you begin your football trading journey there are lots of reasons to consider joining our community:

Goal Profits members are in by far the best place to learn how to trade seriously.

This is not a simple tipping service where you receive an email and are left to get on with it yourself.

When Steve emails out his correct score trading selections, he then trades them side-by-side with members in the chat room.

Imagine being able to ask a professional trader for advice in-play whenever you need it.

That is what the Goal Profits football trading community is all about; helping members to develop their trading skills in order to reach their goals.

A number of members have gone from ‘frustrated gambler‘ to ‘competent trader‘ and had a really enjoyable time doing it.

Anyone who wants to start a career as a football trader needs to be comfortable with betting exchanges, as using them in the right way is vital to success. Betfair is the best betting exchange that most football traders use on a daily basis, but there are a number of other options, for instance Matchbook, Smarkets and Betdaq.

This article will explain, in simple terms:

Screenshots will also be used to show you exactly how betting exchanges operate - so let's begin!

What is a betting exchange?

A betting exchange is where football traders can place bets against other sports fans, rather than against the bookmaker, as in traditional forms of betting.

In its most simplest form, a betting exchange allows a user to bet on or against something happening - usually in the context of a sports event.

One of the main differences of an online betting exchange when compared to a traditional bookmaker is the chance to trade in real-time.

As an exchange, if you place a bet on a football team before the start of a match, by using a sports exchange such as Betfair, you will be able to change your position during the game.

A key benefit of online betting exchanges is that they typically offer better odds than a traditional bookmaker, which is vital for a football trader who needs to find the best possible odds for a bet.

In fact, research has shown that betting exchanges can offer up to 20% more value overall.

This can make a massive difference if you are placing a lot of bets.

Betting exchanges have had a revolutionary impact on the sports betting industry and they now lead the way on odds, with bookmakers following in their footsteps.

This is good news for customers, who have a wider range of choice than ever before when placing their bets.

Some traders use both bookmakers and betting exchanges to make their money, but it is perfectly possible to avoid bookmakers altogether and concentrate solely on sports exchanges.

What does it mean to lay a bet?

Anyone who is hoping to make their living from football trading needs to be 100% sure they understand the difference between backing and laying a bet, as making a mistake can be costly.

Laying a bet is how a number of traders make most of their money.

Put simply, to lay a bet is to bet against an event happening, whereas to back a bet is to bet on the event happening.

For instance, if you think Manchester United are going to win a football match, you would place a back bet on that team.

But if you think they are not going to win - so they will either lose the game or draw it - you can place a lay bet against Manchester United.

By placing a lay bet, a football trader is effectively taking on the role of the bookmaker by offering the odds that can then be taken by another user.

If you are right and the team you have bet against loses or draws, then your lay bet wins.

If the team you chose to lay actually wins the match, your bet loses and you have to make a payout.

In the simplest terms, when you place a back bet, you are betting on something to happen.

A lay bet is the exact opposite of this - you are instead betting on something not to happen.

Let's take a look at an example of how a lay bet works in practice.

We'll be using England's international friendly match against Netherlands for this example.

As you can see by the odds offered on Betfair, England are the favourites to win this match.

With back odds of 1.79 on this sports betting exchange, this means that if you thought England were going to win the match, you could win £7.90 for every £10 you choose to stake.

However, when you are laying a bet you are betting against a team winning a fixture.

On Betfair, the back odds are listed in blue, while the lay odds are coloured in a rather fetching shade of pink.

The lay odds for England against Netherlands in this match are currently set at 1.80.

What this means is that for every £10 you choose to stake, you could be in line to lose £8 if England win the game.

If England did not beat Netherlands, your profit would be £10.

You can back and lay at the prices shown on your chosen sports exchange, or you can also decide to set your own odds.

If you decided that 1.8 was not the right price to lay at, you could instead opt to lay England at 1.7.

However, as other users of the sports exchange would be able to get a better price, there would be a good chance your bet would be unmatched - although it could be matched during the game.

The figure shown below the odds is how much money there is in the market at this time.

So, in the example given above, another £2,800 could be laid on England at 1.8 before the price would change, while there is £514 available to bet on England to win at the price of 1.79.

Big football matches will typically have a lot of money in the match odds market, especially as kick off time approaches.

However, some of the other markets that are offered on the main sports exchanges - for instance the correct score market - may not have a lot of money in them in smaller leagues, which affects the odds on offer.

Backing and laying for profit is how football traders make their money, so make sure you fully understand what you are going before you start placing your bets on your chosen exchange.

How do betting exchanges work?

Betting exchanges are, in effect, an online marketplace where sports fans can bet against each other on global fixtures.

The sports exchange is simply acting as the middleman, allowing users to both set a price for their bet, and take a price that others are offering up for an event to take place.

With millions of customers signed up to these betting exchanges, the odds available are often a lot better than those available on the same matches with a traditional bookmaker.

Betting exchanges make their money by charging traders a rate of commission on their winning bets - more details on which can be found below - but you will only pay commission to the sports exchange if you have won your bet.

Commission does not typically apply to a losing wager.

Although the fact there is no bookmaker setting the odds means there are better prices available on the top betting exchanges, the commission charged on winning bets should also be kept in mind by anyone considering trying to make it as a professional football trader.

Even though the peer-to-peer exchange model used on sites such as Betfair have been shown in various studies to have resulted in virtually perfectly efficient markets, this does not mean that you only have to win 50% of your wagers to be breaking even.

Instead, a trader needs to be aiming to win 52% of their wagers in order to ensure they are turning even a small profit, depending on the level of commission they are being charged.

This might not sound easy, but traders can use sports exchanges to guarantee they are going to make a profit on certain bets.

The way that this works on the exchanges is the same way as what is known as an 'arbitrage' in either spread betting or share trading.

There are two ways that this works in the world of sports trading online.

The first of these is when your selection drifts in price after you have decided to lay a bet. A prime example would be the ever popular lay the draw trading strategy.

Secondly, it is also possible to lock in a certain amount of profit if you back a selection and then later on its price gets shorter.

Because of the changes in price, you would then be able to cover all the possible outcomes and guarantee that whatever happens, you are going to come out on top with some level of profit.

However, remember that you also need to factor in the commission level you are going to have to pay out of your net winnings on a particular market before you decide to lock in a profit.

Betfair exchange commission

Traders who use Betfair as their main sports exchange will have to pay a commission - but only on betting markets they win on.

Anyone who makes a net loss on a Betfair market does not have to pay commission.

Betfair calculates its commission by multiplying the trader's net winnings by the Market Base Rate.

From there, Betfair applies a discount depending on how much a trader uses the site for bets.

New customers will typically be charged at a 5% commission rate, but the most experienced traders using the sports exchange have been able to get their Betfair commission rate down to around the 2% mark.

This can have a massive impact on the money which can be made on the site.

The size of the discount traders get from their commission rate - which Betfair sometimes describes as the Discount Rate, depends on how many Betfair Points a customer has been able to accrue on an account.

The more people use Betfair to place bets on the exchange, the more Betfair Points they will receive, in turn improving their Discount Rate and reducing the amount of commission they have to pay on their winning bets.

This is how Betfair Points are calculated:

Betfair Points are added to an account equally, no matter whether your bets have won or lost on the site.

If you want to find a complete history of the Betfair Points you have been able to collect by trading on this exchange, you can check out your record by looking up the 'Betfair Points Statement' in the 'My Account' section of the site.

Betfair Premium Charge explained

Everyone who uses Betfair as their best betting exchange will be aware of the Betfair Premium Charge, which the site claims only affects a very small proportion of members.

According to Betfair, only around 0.5% of people with an account are affected by the Premium Charge, but considering millions of people are members of Betfair this could still work out at a very significant number.

"The charge simply applies on accounts which make a persistent profit and meet a certain criteria," says Betfair, but the Premium Charge has been a very controversial introduction.

Traders will only be considered as potential payers of the Betfair Premium Charge if their account on the site matches the following conditions.

If your account meets the above three conditions, there is a chance you will be deemed eligible to pay the Betfair Premium Charge.

However, Betfair stresses that no charges are taken out of an account before the holder has been informed of the change in the status of their account.

Once an account has been deemed necessary to have to pay the Betfair Premium Charge, at the end of an account's profitable week in less than 20% of a trader's profit has been paid in "total charges", the Premium Charge will be withdrawn automatically from the account to bring it up to the 20% of profit benchmark.

Some users have complained that the Betfair Premium Charge is too complicated to understand and it does seem to be a bit of a minefield that the average trader may struggle to get their heads around, which is partly why its introduction has been met with such a negative reaction.

For some, the Betfair Premium Charge is a sign of greed for a company that is virtually certain to make profits due to its status as the leading betting exchange in the UK.

Others believe Betfair provides such a high quality service as a sports exchange that it is only fair those with extremely profitable accounts pay more to help to keep the site going.

How to make money on betting exchanges

Although for those who are brand new to trading may feel it is a long way away, it is eminently possible to make a lot of money on betting exchanges once you develop a winning strategy that works for you personally.

A typical strategy used by sports traders on sites such as Betfair and Matchbook is to back a selection at a big price then lay the same bet once the price comes down.

Of course, there is no guarantee that the price is going to move in your favour, but that is where your own skill and expertise comes into play.

A lot of bookmakers now offer a cash out option, which works in essentially the same way as if you had backed and then laid a better when the price had changed.

Betfair also has this option to make backing and laying very straightforward, even for those who are brand new to using the betting exchanges to make money.

As an example of how to lock in a guaranteed profit, let's say you placed a bet of £10 on a team to win the league.

You know that if the team goes on to win the league, you will get £100 profit from your bet.

However, if the price later comes down and you can lay the same bet at 5/1 - now betting against that team to win the league - you can lock in a profit.

A lot of traders also make big cash on betting exchanges by using the inplay markets, with dozens of different options available to bet on sports exchanges for any live football match in this day and age.

As an example, you could place a pre-match back bet on a 0-0 draw between two sides, which is often quite a safe play unless there is likely to be an early goal in the game.

The price for a 0-0 draw will come down the longer the teams take to open the scoring in the match, giving you the chance to then lay 0-0 and guarantee yourself a big profit.

Others use a trading technique that is known as scalping, which involves trading at miniscule odds movements to guarantee a small level of profit with each bet, placing a massive number of wagers to inch up the money you make.

As a real world example of how this effectively works on the exchanges, imagine that you paid £100 for a ticket to an event, then sold it for £101 to someone else moments later, making yourself a £1 profit.

Scalping requires a trader to know in which direction a price is going to move.

Again, it must be stressed that this is never a guarantee, but once you have some level of experience on sports exchanges you will start to get a feel for which prices are rising and which prices are falling.

However, you should always remember that while gambling profits are not taxable in the UK, so that money is all yours tax-free, profits from other trading activity can be taxable in some cases.

List of all betting exchanges

There are four main UK betting exchanges that you will want to sign up to before starting out on your trading journey, if only for the bonuses which will come in handy as you learn.

Make sure you are comfortable with how each of them works before placing bets.

Betfair

Betfair is the biggest betting exchange in the world and, as such, it is hugely popular among traders.

Founded in 2000 by Edward Wray and Andrew Black, today Betfair has four million customers, from all around the world, while the company boasts a turnover of around £50 million a week.

In early 2016, Betfair - which employed more than a thousand people - underwent a merger with the traditional bookmaker Paddy Power to form a new company named Paddy Power Betfair.

Betfair also offers a sportsbook as well as a sports exchange, so it is easier than ever before to check out the different odds that are on offer from both a bookmaker and from other traders.

The standard commission rate paid on winnings at Betfair is set at 5% but some account holders are able to reduce this figure to just 2% by placing a greater number of bets on the site.

Matchbook

The second of the main UK betting exchanges is Matchbook, which used to charge a 1% commission, but this was increased to 1.15% in 2016.

Matchbook aims to offer traders using the sports exchange "the ultimate online gaming experience".

Betdaq

Betdaq, which was founded in the same year as Betfair, has around 7% of the online betting exchanges market.

Irish businessman Dermot Desmond founded the company, which was sold to Ladbrokes in 2013.

Betdaq, which has a standard commission rate of 5%, claims that it handles more than £75 million worth of bets in a typical week.

Smarkets

The newest of the main sports betting exchanges is Smarkets, which was set up in 2008 and recently announced it has traded over £1 billion in bets.

Billing itself as the more "advanced trading platform", Smarkets is preferred by some betting traders due to the fact it has a low commission rate of just 2%.

Along with being a top sports exchange, Smarkets also allows users to back and lay bets on current affairs, politics and popular culture.

April showed another profit, though it was a bit lopsided. I did very little trading in the first 2 weeks, just 18 trades in fact. In the second half of the month I managed 40 trades, and that is where most of the profit came from.

Headline figures

Breaking it down

In my trades I look for an average of 0.5pt profit per trade, so it was pretty much spot on in April, in fact it was very slightly better than usual.

So far in 2016 I have had 240 trades and made 118 points profit, to give an average of 0.49 points profit per trade, very slightly below my target but certainly within range.

In 2016 I am averaging 60 trades per month, which is well below what I would normally look for.

In general I look for around 90 to 100 trades per month.

If I can do that number it means that I am turning my bank over each month, that in turn means that my bank would be working hard enough for me and I would be getting the very best out of it.

By only managing 60 trades per month the bank is not working at full capacity, so I am not getting full value out of it.

Sometimes though other factors come into play that mean you can’t always do as much trading as you would like, so this has to be taken into account too.

So my overall profit in 2016 may be down on previous years but that is purely because I have not done as much trading.

The profit per trade is almost bang on target and that is the measure that I tend to go by anyway.

Looking at April itself I had trades in 17 out of the 30 days, and just 5 out of my 20 systems showed a loss over the month.

Trading strategies

Unusually for me, my big loser this month was Rambo.

I only played 2 of them but they were both 2pt losers.

LTD1/LTD2 both showed small losses, as did Over 2.5 goals.

The other loser for me in April was SH00T, that is the second month in a row it has shown a loss, so I will drop that one for now and replace it with another system.

As for the big winners in April, the BTS and 65/75 both had 3 winners out of 3.

Also 1001 had 2 winners from 2 selections.

Those 3 systems together gave 10.2pt profit.

There were other nice winners with SH15, Over 3.5 goals, Match Odds, FHH, Sc2H, H00T, DNB, 2+.

Those 8 systems gave 18.9pt profit between them.

So along with the 3 systems above they gave 29.1pt profit, virtually all the monthly profit.

The April profits would have been much higher had there been any success with Correct Score trades, but that did not happen, so hopefully they will come to the fore in May.

Having said that though, I am still very pleased with how April went and look forward to more of the same next month.

May sees the end of the League season across Europe, so I will turn to the Summer Leagues and get ready for the Euros in June.

Everyone who joins Goal Profits has an aspiration, whether that is a consistent second income or a full-time career. While it isn't easy to trade successfully from day one, some new members are prepared to put their previous gambling habits aside and start afresh with a trading mindset. It is these people who often have the most success.

Here is an email received yesterday:​

Just completed my first 30 days trading using your service and I just wanted to let you know how I'm getting on.

So before I joined I had very limited knowledge of trading, I knew about LTD and scalping but that's about it.

The more I learned about trading the more I wanted to learn so I searched high and low for more strategies and methods of finding an edge and landed on your website.

Safe to say I had enough to sink my teeth into here!

So much for me to learn and develop my skills with. I read through the forum, and the Launchpad and I still do this everyday.

I set up a matrix mainly around LTD strategies as I was comfortable with them, and kept an eye on other strategies.

When I was comfortable with a certain strat and a strong selection was there I would play it to give myself the experience of actually trading the strat.

So some I really enjoy and can pick games for and some I just don't get/like.

I like to keep it simple.

So as of today I have 4 first half systems, 5 second half systems and 1 correct score.

I pick the strongest selections for each of these and play them. I usually end up with 1 or 2 games on weekdays and 3 on weekends. Some days I have no selections and I'm fine with that.

I've attached a pic of my Betfair P&L for the last 30 days using £10 stakes. (ignore the horse racing as I was experimenting with a pre race scalping model).

I'm absolutely amazed with the result and more importantly how you have caged my psychology from a gambler who wanted to get rich quick and easily to a trader who is consistent and solid.

I will point out that I have a full time job (45+ hours a week) and I don't have the time to trade as much as I would like but my goal is to supplement my current income.

Sorry about the lengthy message but just wanted to get over how pleased I am with your service.

Stephen 
Goal Profits member

What a fantastic result!

The key things to note are that you can trade successfully even with a full-time job, because our Team Stats ​software does most of the hard work for you. Those who claim they don't have time to trade are talking absolute nonsense!

But most of all, if you are prepared to approach football trading with an open mind you can make it work. If you have not achieved ​success so far, then you need to change something otherwise you will just get the same results over and over. You can't possibly expect anything different.

Stephen did exactly that; started from scratch and has started to form good habits rather than stick with those bad gambling instincts which don't work.​

Mindset is a huge part of football trading. Stephen has started to work his way through our 26-week Launchpad programme, built his own personal trading portfolio with strategies he likes and he's reaping the benefits in a big way.

Success stories like this make our hard work so worthwhile. The Launchpad Mentors should take huge credit too for their hard work supporting members. A brilliant win for our Betfair trading community!

If you want to start football trading, a betting exchange account is essential.

Bookie accounts do not allow you to trade in the same way, so they are not going to do the job.

We have already explained betting exchanges, now we look at the four exchanges available in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland.

It's worth signing up to them all for the new customer bonuses, but you will also find lower commissions here and there. Every little helps!

So here is our list of betting exchanges, starting with the biggest (but not always best).

Betfair

Betfair is the world's largest betting exchange.It was formed in 2000 and, although being based in Hammersmith, West London, it operates under a Gibraltar licence. From 2 February 2016, the company has been listed on the London Stock Exchange as Paddy Power Betfair.

Betfair won a "Queen's Award for Enterprise" in April 2008. This was in recognition of the fact that more than half of all new customers come from outside the UK and account for 44% of all revenue. That might not be the case any longer, since Betfair pulled out of Germany, Austria, Spain and Portugal due to regulatory issues.

In September 2008, Betfair introduced "Premium Charge" which we have explained here. The company stated that fewer than 0.5% of their customers would be affected but that is still more than 20,000 successful traders, given their claim of having at least four million customers.

There was a huge amount of criticism for Premium Charge, including a Guardian article which stated that Betfair is "where winners have just become losers". However, you do need to be very profitable in order to hit this extra charge so it's a nice problem to have!

Every football trader must have a Betfair account. The market liquidity is better than any other exchange and many more matches are offered in-play. There's simply no other option for many football fixtures.

Matchbook

Matchbook was formed in 2004, but only became a major player after being acquired by a group of investors in 2011.

For any exchange, liquidity is vital and Matchbook have stated that, "we want to grow our community by focusing on our liquidity, one market and sport at a time. To do this, we ensure we have critical mass along with the best price and liquidity offering in the industry, before we add any further markets."

The ultra-low commission rate of just 1.15% in the UK will certainly help attract customers.

There is still a way to go with football markets, though Matchbook claim to have "the most significant pool of US sports liquidity available". This includes NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB.

Can Matchbook challenge Betfair when it comes to football trading? Time will tell.

In the meantime, let's do our bit and take advantage of the much lower commissions whenever we can!

Betdaq

Betdaq was founded in 2000 by Irish businessman Dermot Desmond and acquired by Ladbrokes PLC in February 2013.

At the time of the acquisition, Betdaq had an estimated 7% share of the online betting market in Great Britain and Ireland and was generally considered to be the main competitor to Betfair.

Ladbrokes paid €30m for Betdaq’s exchange operator and also acquired a 10% stake in the company which provides the technology for the exchange. They have an option to either buy the remaining 90% or sell the initial 10% back. It appears that Ladbrokes were after this technology more than the exchange itself as very little appears to have happened since in terms of development.

Betdaq claim to handle in excess of £75M worth of bets every week. That sounds like a large amount of money, but Betfair regularly see more than £2m matched in one Premier League match odds market.

That obviously means that liquidity is not as good at Betdaq as it is at Betfair, but there's no Premium Charge either. Swings and roundabouts.

Smarkets

Smarkets is the newest sports betting exchange, having been founded in 2008.

In their mission statement, Smarkets state that they "take a stand for integrity by providing a superior online investment platform that facilitates honest, user-centered trading in regard to sports, politics and current events".

This all sounds very nice, but can Smarkets challenge Betfair?

They certainly seem to think so, saying that they are "gearing up their platform to pose a serious challenge to other established betting exchange operators".

Growth does seem to be picking up. It took Smarkets until April 2014 to hit £500m lifetime trades but then less than a year to double that, achieving the £1bn mark in March 2015.

March 2015 has seen Smarkets surpass £1bn in lifetime trades!

— Smarkets (@smarkets) March 23, 2015

At 2% commission they will certainly attract customers but the key, as always, will be liquidity.

Goal Profits football traders are enjoying a brand new upgrade to the Members Area.

We have just added an "In-Play & Starting Soon" page which lists every fixture covered by our unique Team Stats software.

That's 65 leagues worth of football matches!

It's never been easier to keep track of matches which are in-play and check trading stats with the click of a mouse.

The Team Stats pop-up includes seasonal stats, the last three matches for both teams and then the seasonal record against similar strength teams - top or bottom half of the league.

This is very important as it puts stats into context.

For example, a bottom half team will usually play very differently against a top half team as they will against a bottom half team, which they may see as more of an opportunity to bank three points.

Want to check the Betfair markets? No problem! One more click and you're right there.

Many members research football fixtures before play starts and then put a daily football trading plan together.

That definitely helps to keep discipline in check, especially for inexperienced traders with a betting background.

However, a large number like to keep an eye on matches being played and pick out in-play trading opportunities.

I used to do this by having Flashscores open on one screen and Team Stats on another.

That was fine, but I had to keep flicking between the two and that got a bit awkward.

Now I can see the latest scores, flick open the stats and even take a look at the league table - all from one page.

I can even check an entire league at half-time and scan through really quickly for potential second half opportunities.

Just got home after a hard day at work?

Open the page and instantly see every scheduled league fixture for the evening ahead.

Do your research in minutes, click the Betfair market open and get trading.

Of course, there are many more research tools available in the Members Area which go into far more depth, but the "In-Play & Starting Soon" page offers incredible convenience...

...and members love it!

The term "Dutching" in betting or trading means to back several selections in an event so that if any one of them wins, the return is exactly the same.

Origin of Dutching

Firstly, it has nothing whatsoever to do with the Dutch!

The name comes from the Prohibition Era in the United States.

Al Capone's accountant, Dutch "Dutchy" Schultz developed the technique in order to lay horses, long before Betfair trading was available.

He would bet different amounts on a number of horse so that the profit would be the same, no matter which of his horses won the race.

Essentially, Dutchy Schultz was laying the horse (or horses) he didn't expect to win, by backing others in the same race which he thought had a better chance of coming home first.

Dutch Schultz, 1902-1935

Dutching and football trading

There are many uses for Dutching when trading football matches.

The most obvious are markets with numerous outcomes, such as the correct score market.​

Let's assume you want to set up a correct score trade in the match between Everton and Spurs.​

You're pretty confident of a home win and a few goals, so you want to back 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0.​

You quickly enter the prices for each score into our free Dutching calculator and ​set your total stake to £100.

It's then a simple task to head over to Betfair and open your positions in the correct score market.

They all have the same profit (give or take a few pennies) and you're all set to trade.

You could also use trading software such as Fairbot to Dutch a number of selections very quickly.​

Dutched markets

Some markets are already Dutched, such as Double Chance.

Looking at Everton v Totenham again, the Match Odds market is priced as follows:

If I were to Dutch the market myself, I come back with the following prices:

There was not much liquidity in the Betfair market close to kick-off, but you can see that the prices are similar.

The Double Chance market has already Dutched each of the two selections, though with no liquidity it would be almost impossible to trade.

Now that you understand how Dutching works, you will be able to use the Match Odds market instead which always has a lot more liquidity in the bigger leagues.

How to calculate stake amounts

The easiest way to work out stake amounts is to use use our Dutching calculator.

However, here are the maths for those who like detail behind the numbers.

Firstly, divide the total stake by each of the prices:

Then add the three results together:

Finally, divide each of the results by the total:

And there are your stake amounts:

Plus, of course, the stake amounts add up to your total stake:

If any of your three selections wins, your profit will be £196.26 - £100 = £96.26.

You will also need to account for betting exchange commission unless you are using a traditional bookie.

It's been quite a journey over the past five years. What started as a simple lay the draw tipping service has grown into the best football trading community online, as voted for five times!

We've been lucky enough to meet many members over the years at our free social events and hear how we have - quite literally - changed lives.​ We have seen a number of members realise their dream of trading full-time on Betfair and there are a few more ready to follow.​

Websites in this industry come and go, often disappearing into thin air after a matter of weeks! Having worked seven days per week for most of the last five years, I understand why many don't last.

The workload is pretty ridiculous just from trading, supporting members and replying to other emails before we even think about maintaining the strategies, Team Stats and improving the site.

Thankfully, Kevin and I share the same work ethic and we dedicate a huge amount of time every day, not just to keeping everything together, but moving forward too.

That's not going to change either; we have big plans for the future!

Birthday Giveaway

As a thank you to everyone for their support over the years, we will be giving away a full year membership to Goal Profits worth £365.

The winner will receive full access to the Members Area including our exclusive Team Statistics software, ​28 football trading strategies, live trading chat room and support from professional traders.

The giveaway is completely free to enter and open to everyone except existing Goal Profits members who have more than £3,500 worth of prizes up for grabs in their own draw.

It will take less than 30 seconds to enter, so click the button below and good luck!​

Fantastic news!

Goal Profits has been voted "Best Football Betting System" for the third year in a row!

Not only that, but we collected three times as many votes as the system way back in second place.

Just as in previous years, a number of new sites have appeared and many of them have already sunk again without trace.

Punters are much smarter these days and know when they're being sold short, so it's no wonder that only the very best survive long-term.

We've added more new features to the Members Area over the past year than ever before and we're not done yet; there's plenty more in the pipeline!

It's this drive for constant improvement that keeps us way ahead of everyone else.

As Lucy Collins says, "No matter what a review site may say about a service, it is ultimately the opinion of paying members that matters most. And the fact is, year on year, they come out in droves to vote for Goal Profits."

You can read the full Betting Oscar announcement here

If you want to learn how to trade football from the best there is, you still only have one option.

Goal Profits has been voted "Best Betting System" for the third year running to complete a quite incredible hat trick. Thank you so much to everyone who voted for us!

This is our 7th award in just the last three years!

Six of them have been voted for by ordinary punters which is very special indeed and we are so proud of our achievements.

2016 has seen a number of major additions to the Goal Profits football trading community, the biggest being our 26-week 'Launchpad' course for new traders.

It offers a step-by-step introduction to the world of football trading, plus full support from Kevin and me along with two experienced 'Launchpad Mentors'. Tim and Bryn have gone on the complete journey since joining Goal Profits as members so they know exactly what others need.

They are both now trading at a very high level, in fact Tim is trading full-time.

Every Goal Profits member enjoys full access to Launchpad along with all the support that he or she could ever need. Our mission is to help more members reach their trading goals each year and it's been great to meet a number of them in person at our free events.

Goal Profits, without a shadow of a doubt in my mind, has shown every other service out there how it should be done.

Lucy Collins 
Lay Back & Get Rich

So on we go to the 2016/17 winter league season. There are a number of new additions and upgrades in the pipeline for members to enjoy and we will ensure that by this time next year, we are serving our members even better and in the perfect position to make it four in a row.

If you would like to read the full award announcement on the Lay Back & Get Rich blog, click here.

I've lost count of the number of people who have told me how much they want to become full-time football traders, give up the 9-5 and enjoy a much more flexible lifestyle.

Unfortunately, as soon as they realise that football trading takes a bit of effort, those same people often come back with "I don't have time". But of course they do have time - everyone does - they just convince themselves in order to try and justify quitting.

The sad truth is that everyone who quits trading because they 'don't have enough time' will then manage to sit down in front of the TV for an hour or two every night. It's crazy really, because they could still watch Eastenders while trading and working towards that full-time trading dream.

The myth that trading takes a lot of time stops so many from finding success. However, everyone who really wants to trade full-time will not invent a poor excuse but find a way to make it happen. 

When Tim and Bryn became Goal Profits members, they wanted to trade full-time but worked crazy hours and had numerous family commitments. They could have both claimed not to have enough time but, instead of giving up, they found ways to make football trading work.

They are both now helping other Goal Profits members reach their trading goals, offering support and advice as "Launchpad Mentors". Here is some advice they have for others who want to learn how to trade football, while time-poor.

Firstly, here's Tim...

I am a family man, have two kids and am married. My son is very active in sports, plays club cricket and football and when I first started trading I ran a sports travel business with two others so time was very limited indeed.

What helped me was to find a way of reducing the workload. I created my shortlist; which is now available in the Goal Profits Members Area under 'Tim’s Shortlists'. It allowed me to immediately save time and whittle down a very long list of fixtures to a handful very quickly. I only concentrated on certain leagues and a handful of strategies. I only traded correct score strategies when I knew I had the time to be able to concentrate fully and wouldn’t be distracted.

I did a lot of my research late at night when the kids and my wife had gone to bed (she loves her sleep!) so I knew a day in advance exactly what games would be of interest to me the following day. This would very rarely take much longer than an hour a night. If I knew I would not be able to trade the games the following day then I would still keep a record of them so I could look back and evaluate how my filters, selections and strategies were doing.

The biggest thing that hit home to me was that in order to make a success of this I did not need to be glued to my PC all day every day. Take an average month; if I could trade just twenty days out of the month and make an average profit of just 0.5pt per day then that would give me a monthly profit of 10pts.

I very rarely traded correct score trades and concentrated more on the football trading strategies that Kevin created. There are plenty of set and forget strategies available to us all on Team Stats. In the early days, the 'BOGGY' strategy was a particular favourite of mine as I could set that up and leave it to run whilst out and about, as was 'Dr1p'.

The thing I love about trading is it is so flexible you can fit it in around whatever lifestyle you have.

Tim
Launchpad Mentor

Tim left his job in November 2015 and became a full-time trader. If he can do it with such a heavy schedule, anyone can.

Bryn's story is even more impressive...

I struggled with finding time and still do; it's such a precious thing!

A few years back I worked 60+ hours per week, was on call 120 hours a week with my retained firefighting job and had a family with all that brings time-wise.

Things have changed a wee bit now and, although I don’t work the 60+ hour job anymore, have enough on my plate. Just to give you an idea, I work around 26 hours with the Blood Service. I'm still on call around 120 hours a week and getting approximately 5-6 call outs on average a week (as well as all the training, etc that comes with the job). I'm a member of a Welsh male voice choir, have access to my daughter two days/nights per week and my son on two different days/nights per week. In addition, I am renovating a property which will become my pension fund along with another two properties which I partly own, manage and maintain. So as you can imagine, it's pretty hectic and finding time is still a struggle!

I’ll look at the whole weeks' strategy selections on a Monday night (a rare night off) copy/pasting the selections and stats from each strategy page into an excel spreadsheet that I’ve created. It has conditional formatting set up with my filters (nothing major, just some of the filters that Kevin mentions on the pages) so it highlights straight away the selections that pass my filters. I have a few strategies which I have to check manually in Team Stats but that doesn’t take me long.

My spreadsheets have saved me loads of time, especially on busy days when there are lots of selections for a particular strategy. Once I copy and paste, the list is reduced to just a few selections.

So, from this weekly shortlist I plan which fixtures best fit around my other commitments, then chop and change my Matrix around to fit. For example, if I’m singing with the choir that night I might do a few set and forgets or strategies that don't require in-play stats checks. If I have a free afternoon or evening, I might do a correct score or second half strategy which requires more in-play checks before committing. If I'm with the kids, I’ll trade on my mobile phone.

I have a plan in place pre-match, so I'm just waiting for goals. When they come Flashscores lets me know, then a few clicks and I’m traded out.

Unlike some traders, I don’t do a lot of my own testing and spend hours on recording and tweaking filters to get a few more percentage points out of a system. If I had the time I would; and I probably will do at some point in the future when the pension fund is set up.

Don’t get me wrong, I do feel that the more research and study you do the better it is, However, the point I’m making is that in my personal opinion you do not have to spend hours and hours looking at stats and doing research. If you have the time then great, I just get drowned in the stats sometimes and cant see the trees for the forest!

Team Stats and the strategies that have been developed for Goal Profits members are more than enough to make a healthy monthly profit and they save us hours and hours in research. In my humble opinion, the more important things to master are discipline and bank management. After all, without mastering these it doesn't matter how well your filters perform.

In my trading diary [on the Goal Profits forum] I’ll be documenting much more around my selection process and my weekly plans. I’ll see what I can do with regards to my spreadsheets in the future; I might be able to develop them into templates which would help members who also struggle with time.

Good luck with the time keeping. It's a hard balance to get right, but once you crack it you wont look back.

Bryn 
Launchpad Mentor

That's a lot to cram into 24 hours per day, but not having to work 60+ hours per week certainly helps! Rather than that high-pressure job, Bryn now works part-time helping others and loves the reduced stress. His plan is to trade full-time when he feels the time is right.

Imagine having that much control over your life decisions. Do you still want to invent a 'time' excuse?

Today (Thursday 29th December 2016) there were only three evening fixtures; Bari v SPAL, Aston Villa v Leeds United and Rotherham United v Burton Albion.

All three went in-play on Betfair, so I fired up Team Stats to see what trading angles I could find. I used small £10 stakes to prove that even a small trading bank can return excellent profits.

A little more than two hours after logging in to Betfair, I had made a profit of £46.68 (4.67pts). Of course, I didn't spend much time actually trading as most of it was spent watching Dexter on Netflix!

With Team Stats, everyone is able to trade easily and with very little knowledge of the teams involved. I can promise you, my knowledge of Italy's Serie B could be written on the back of a postage stamp!

In this post, I will explain exactly what I did and why.

Profiling fixtures

On a busy day, I profile fixtures of interest ahead of kick-off but there were only three to look at tonight. The Italian Serie B game between Bari and SPAL kicked off at 7.30pm, so that's where I started my research.

When profiling matches, I am looking for three main things:

From that information, I can decide which trading strategies offer the best risk/reward.

Bari v SPAL

This game was 9th v 3rd and Team Stats showed me that Bari had scored in 9/10 home games, while SPAL had scored in 8/10 away. I could also see that Bari had conceded in 6/10 home games and SPAL had conceded in 8/10 away.

It looked like goals were on the horizon from those stats, but only 5/10 Bari home games had gone O2.5 goals and 3/10 SPAL away games. Even worse, only 1/10 had gone O3.5 goals for both teams.

Clicking on the "Analyse" button in Team Stats, I could see that it was a similar story for Bari at home against top half teams and SPAL away against top half teams.

Three things stood out:

1. Every Bari home game had gone O1.5 goals (even though the O2.5 and O3.5 stats were poor).
2. Bari had scored in 9/10 home games (4/5 against top half teams). This put 1-1/2-0 scores firmly in my sights.
3. Goal probability for the first half was 80% which is a decent number in any league. However, in Serie B that's a huge amount! Team Stats Trends showed me that 38.5% of Serie B games this season had been 0-0 at half-time against an average of 32.4%. The English Premier League, for example, is at 30.0%.

From my initial profiling, I was expecting two goals with at least one of them in the first half and at least one for Bari.

The second half goal probability was 82% which was a little higher than the first half, but not especially high for an average second half between two teams in the top half of the table.

Of course, I had no interest in backing 1-1 or 2-0 from the start and definitely not O1.5 goals which wasn't even close to 1.50! The only thing to do was wait.

After 20 minutes had been played I checked the in-play stats to find that there had been 1 corner and 1 shot. However, just 10 minutes later, those numbers had risen to 4 corners and 6 shots.

With the game firing into life and that first half goal probability being so high, I was happy to lay U0.5 first half goals at 1.50 (1pt) and also U1.5 first half goals at 1.05 (1pt).

On 36' SPAL scored from the penalty spot and I had almost 1pt of profit in the bag. A second goal before half-time would have doubled my profit, but wasn't to be this time.

With Team Stats suggesting a Bari goal so strongly, my natural thought going into the second half was that they would equalise at some point. However, the BTS (Both Teams to Score) price was well under 2.00 and I didn't want to lay SPAL as high as 1.80; after all, they were 3rd in the league.

I decided to monitor the game and, after an hour of play, there had only been one more corner and shot. I had no interest in getting involved while the game was so quiet.

Bari scored on 62' - a penalty - which was not the biggest surprise, but I had no regrets about keeping my profit safe. I know that making the correct decisions every time works in my favour long-term and a weak trade which wins is still a weak trade.

Had the in-play stats supported what Team Stats was so strongly showing, then I would have been tempted but with a profit already secured I didn't need to risk a thing. I will never run out of fixtures to trade and patience pays off in the long run.

The game ended 1-1 which was an exact fit for the type of score which Team Stats had identified.

Aston Villa v Leeds United

This was the second fixture of the night and it kicked off 15 minutes after the Italian game at Bari.

Villa had scored in every home game this season, but the first half goal probability was low at 62%. Clicking on the Team Stats "Analyse" button, it was even lower at just 33%. I considered backing the half-time 0-0, but I much prefer going for goals rather than wishing them away.

Team Stats showed me that Villa had not had a 0-0 at home, nor Leeds away. However, only 45% of Villa home games and Leeds away games had gone over 2.5 goals. Even worse, no Villa home games against top half teams had gone over 2.5 goals and only 25% of Leeds away games had gone over.

Based on those numbers, I could not expect goals, but definitely one for Villa so perhaps a
1-1/2-0 score.

In contrast, "Daily Best Bets" over on our Trade Your Bets site showed plenty of value on the away win. In order to make a profit I didn't need Leeds to actually win the game, but be in front at some point.

The Team Stats "Goal Patterns" page showed me that Villa had scored first in 8/11 home games, while Leeds had scored first in 5/11 away so it didn't look too promising, however Leeds were 5th in the table and had won 4 of their last 5 away.

Leeds were available to back at 4.20. At such a high price, I only need 1 of 4 similar selections to win and I'm in profit overall. Daily Best Bets has been flying this season, so I trusted the value algorithm and backed Leeds at 4.20 for 0.5pt.

After 20 minutes there had been just 1 corner and 3 shots, then 10 minutes later it was exactly the same number. From those sort of numbers, it wasn't hard to see why the first half goal probability was so low!

By half-time there had been 3 corners and 7 shots which was better, but not enough to tempt me into any other type of trade. Had I backed the half-time 0-0 I would have had a profit, but trading is easy in hindsight!

Leeds went in front on 54' and I immediately traded out at 1.67, locking in 0.72pt profit (141% ROI). I was delighted with that!

"Goal Patterns" showed me that Villa had gone behind 3 times at home this season and all of them went 1-1, but that Leeds had taken the lead 5 times away and none of them had gone 1-1 (4/5 went 0-2). Conflicting stats there, but Villa had scored in every home game so I looked to the in-play numbers for guidance.

After 70 minutes, Villa were trailing the corner count 2-5 but this was up to 4-5 10 minutes later. In terms of shots, Villa were level at 6-6 on 70 minutes but trailed 7-8 after 80 minutes had been played. Not the sort of numbers which indicated that Villa were attacking hard and I decided to hang on to my profit rather than risk giving it back.

Villa scored a penalty on 86' so I could have boosted my profit, but I was very happy with my decision.

The game ended 1-1 which, again, was right in line with what Team Stats suggested. However, because Leeds scored first, I was able to lock in a very nice profit.

​Had I not had the insight of Daily Best Bets, I would have almost certainly trusted Villa's home record more and layed under 1.5 goals late in the game to land a profit that way.

Rotherham United v Burton Albion

This was the third fixture of the night and the least predictable. It was an interesting bottom-of-the-table clash and certainly one which Rotherham would have targeted as being winnable.

They had scored in 9/11 at home, while Burton had conceded in 11/12 away. Burton had scored in 8/12 away and Rotherham had only kept 2 clean sheets at home, so every chance of at least one goal for each team.

The Team Stats "Analyse" button showed an even stronger position, with Rotherham scoring in 8/8 at home to bottom half teams and Burton scoring in 5/7 away. Rotherham had only kept 2/8 clean sheets at home to bottom half teams, Burton only 1/7 away.

Over/Under goal stats were stronger for Rotherham at home to bottom half teams too. 64% of their total home games had gone over 2.5 goals but, against bottom half teams, that rose to 75%. And the 45% which had gone over 3.5 goals rose to 63%. Burton's goal stats were not as strong, but 11/12 away games had had at least 2 goals and that's always a good base number of goals to trade from.

From my profiling, there was a strong chance of both teams scoring. From there, it looked very possible for a third and perhaps fourth goal, but impossible to call which team would end up with the win.

I let the game kick off and saw that after 20 minutes there had been 4 corners and 6 shots. This was exactly what I wanted to see; attacking play rather than a cagey affair with both teams more concerned with 'not losing'.

Coupled with the history of goals I had seen in Team Stats, I was confident enough to open a "Robin" trade by backing the target scores for a total of 1pt ("Batman & Robin" is one of our correct score trading strategies).

Because I had waited, the prices had risen nicely and I was able to place more profit on the target scores for the same liability than I would have had if I'd gone in from the start.

By this time, there had been a goal in the Bari v SPAL game so I had a profit already secured there, with the possibility of a second before half-time. My away win trade at Aston Villa was also running, but more than covered even if it lost.

At this point of the evening, my worst case scenario was a loss of 0.5pt if everything went wrong.

After 30 minutes had been played, there had been another couple of shots on goal. First half goal probability was 73%, but a much higher 89% when checking the Team Stats "Analyse" button (which puts stats into better context). I decided to lay U0.5 first half goals at 1.45 and U1.5 first half goals at 1.05 for 1pt each.

It added 0.5pt liability to my overall position, but one goal before half-time would mean I was in pretty much a no-lose position.

Bari v SPAL was now at half-time so I knew my profit there, plus Villa was 0-0 with nothing much happening. My worst case scenario was still only 1pt but the upside from a first half goal here would be significant.

Burton scored on 36' and again on 41' to land both profits, so that covered my correct score trade and guaranteed me 1pt profit no matter what else happened. 

There was even time for a third goal before the break, which got Rotherham back into the game.

During half-time, I layed profit from 1-3 and 2-2 (0.5pt each) so that my correct score trade was scratch (no profit or loss) and that meant my 2pts return from the first half was in the bank as profit.

My overall position for the evening was now almost 3pts profit in the bank (a little under 1pt at Bari and 2pts at Rotherham), another profit if Leeds score first and more green with a fourth goal at Rotherham. All the hard work was done and it was now a case of maximising profit as best I could.

I had a lot more profit waiting for a fourth goal, but neither team could hit the back of the net again, despite plenty of shots on goal. In fact, by 80' there had been 11 shots in the second half alone.

At that point, I decided to lay more profit from 1-3 and 2-2 in order to guarantee 1pt profit from the correct score trade to go with all the others. Rotherham were chasing the game and, if a fourth goal had been scored, I would have added another 2+pts profit to what I already had.

Click to enlarge

The game ended 1-2 for a total of 3pts profit. Both teams did score as Team Stats had suggested and I was just one goal short of a big green.

In Summary

I managed to make a profit from all three games:

£46.68 is a terrific return for such small stakes (monthly subscription more than covered) and I spent most of the time watching Netflix. Trading simply doesn't take very long at all.

Even if I'd been called away, it wouldn't have been a problem. The only trades which needed attention were the correct score at Rotherham and away win at Villa. I could have left them alone and still made £29.50 profit.

Trading is very flexible and, with the instant knowledge which Team Stats offers, incredibly simple.

Make good decisions, rinse and repeat. That's all there is to it.

Start trading today for FREE

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The two Premier League fixtures on New Years Day 2017 were of no interest to me from a trading point of view, but there was a full programme of English non-league fixtures.

While there are often plenty of goals, there's not too much liquidity and I could not send a large number of Goal Profits members into markets like that. Trading individually is one thing, but lots of traders going after the same liquidity at the same time causes no end of problems.

My case study a few days ago has received incredible feedback - click here if you haven't read it - so I decided to take advantage of the quiet time and record another day of Betfair football trading.

As before, I used £10 stakes. This was partly to show that you don't need a large bank in order to trade football but also because liquidity was not the best.

Profiling fixtures

As I explained in my first case study, I am looking for three main things:

When I spot something of interest in Team Stats I make a note, add the match to Flashscores and then I can easily keep track of it in-play.

Trading non-league matches

It's a bit different when the fixtures are non-league; liquidity is often tight and many of the games don't even go in-play on Betfair.

More important than that, however, is the fact that non-league teams are full of non-league players:

The overriding characteristic of these players is inconsistency:

Therefore, while goals are often plentiful, they don't always go in at the right end of the pitch! With this in mind, I prefer to back goals rather than teams when trading smaller leagues. That way, any goal is good news and I'm not relying on individual team performance.

When I am interested in backing a team, I make sure to check that the match odds prices are where I'd expect them to be close to kick-off. I don't have the first clue about players in lower leagues, but markets do. While Real Madrid can bring in another international striker when Cristiano Ronaldo misses a game, the likes of North Ferriby United don't have that luxury.

If a strong home favourite is not priced accordingly, I know that something is up. I can then choose to ignore the game completely, do some digging into previous team line-ups on Soccerway or look at what is posted on official club Twitter accounts.

Trading the first half

Before kick-off today, I had two main games of interest; Halifax v Darlington and Lincoln City v Guiseley. I had lots of notes about other fixtures, but these were the two which Team Stats indicated were the strongest opportunities.

I fancied goals at Halifax and a possible correct score trade, but there was not even £200 matched in the Betfair correct score market (by half-time there had still only been £282 matched!). There was no way I could possibly trade with liquidity so poor and it was 1-1 after 22' anyway, so no chance of getting in for a 'Robin' trade. It ended on a target score too, which would have been a great profit.

Lincoln were very strongly expected to win and I hoped that the game could get to the break level, then I'd have a chance of a trade with decent risk/reward. The home win was priced around 1.50 to back before kick-off which told me that the line-ups were as expected and the market shared my view of a 'banker' home win.

Looking at our Team Stats software, there were lots of reasons to like the home win:

Of course, always expect the unexpected... Lincoln scored an own goal after 12 minutes to give Guiseley the lead!

Team Stats showed me that Lincoln had gone 0-1 down at home three times this season and all three had then gone 1-1. The away goal had certainly done me a favour in terms of shifting the home win price higher, though it was still under 2.00.

Lincoln had scored in 9/13 first halves at home, but the in-play stats were not too hot. I decided to wait and see if they improved as the half progressed but, after 30' had been played, they were still fairly weak.

I decided to lay 0-1 in the half-time score market at 1.80 (1pt) so that a second goal before the break would make a profit. Waiting for that price meant that I could also lay another game late in the half at 1.20 to give me two chances of a goal with only 1pt at risk.

Team Stats showed a couple of games with high first half goal probability; Macclesfield Town v Tranmere Rovers and Sutton United v Bromley. There had already been three goals at Macclesfield, but Sutton was still 0-0. In-play stats showed the home favourites leading 3-2 on corners and 10-4 shots so I layed 0-0 at 1.20 (1pt).

My worst case position at half-time would be a 1pt loss, best case with a goal in both games would be 2pts profit. Sutton scored on 45+4' from a free-kick to leave me with a small profit overall.

Trading the second half

Maidenhead v Wealdstone was 0-0 and on my shortlist for a second half trade. In-play stats were good, but Betfair did not have a live feed so all markets were suspended. The game ended 2-0 so would have been a profit, but that's ok - making the right calls is important, even when I can't take advantage and trade them.

I went back to one of my main trades; Lincoln City v Guiseley. Team Stats showed me that Lincoln had won 7/13 second halves at home, while Guiseley had lost 6/11 second halves away. Adding that to all the stats I'd already looked at, I determined that I was happy to go against the away win.

In order to give me plenty of upside, I layed Guiseley at 2.60 (0.5pt) and backed Lincoln at 3.40 (0.5pt). That left me with 1.3pts liability on the away win, scratch on the draw and 1.7pts profit on the home win.

Lincoln equalised with a penalty on 57' which gave me more than half an hour to find a winning goal. However, by 75' the in-play stats didn't show the sort of dominance I'd have expected from such a strong home team battering a weak defence.

I backed Guiseley at 11.00 (0.1pt) just in case they sneaked a late goal. That left me with 0.3pts liability on the away win, 0.1pt liability on the draw and 1.6pts profit on the home win. Very comfortable.

At this point, I checked on other games which I had identified during my profiling as having potential for goals. Halifax v Darlington and Southport v Wrexham were both 2-2 and had good in-play stats which I had been tracking since half-time:

Plenty of action and Team Stats confirmed that late goals were a feature for all four teams. I layed U4.5 goals at both Halifax and Southport at 1.70 for 1pt each.

I now had three games in-play and my worst case scenario was a loss on the day of less than 1.5pts. However, the potential reward was far bigger and just one goal for any team (except Guiseley) would have left me with a minimum of scratch.

It was strong position to be in; I had five teams looking for winning goals and around ten minutes for them to do their thing. Team Stats had already identified that goals were likely and in-play stats had confirmed that the games were lively. Just like the first half, I spread my options about so that I had a lot working in my favour.

Guiseley picked up a red card on 80', then Southport scored...

That goal ensured that I'd be in profit for the day and I still had time for more goals elsewhere. That was the cue for Lincoln to take the lead and a quick trade locked my profit in there too.

Guiseley had another man sent off and conceded a third goal to end the game well beaten. Halifax v Darlington had 5 shots in the last ten minutes, but no goals.

I ended the day with 1.95pts profit for the day and a happy start to 2017. No big liabilities to worry about at any point, plenty of chances for profit, job done.

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