There were three Premier League fixtures played this evening (3rd January 2017).

As a Bournemouth fan, I was looking forward to the visit of Arsenal, but none of the games were of much interest to me at the start from a trading point of view.

Team Stats showed a few angles I could work with if in-play stats were supportive, but I didn't have much confidence so small stakes only to see if I could add a little to my trading bank.

As it turns out, almost everything went to plan (except for Bournemouth's collapse against Arsenal!) and I ended up with a profit of £78.30.

This case study looks at:

• Stoke City v Watford: Using in-play stats to confirm an angle identified in Team Stats
• Crystal Palace v Swansea City: Expecting one outcome, but backing another in-play
• AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal: Choosing goals markets over match odds markets

Stoke City v Watford

This was the one game with a clear angle identified by Team Stats. Stoke had played 9 games at home and scored in 6 of them, but against bottom half teams they had scored at home in 4/4. What's more, they had scored in every first half in those 4 games against bottom half teams.

A very strong angle, but I wanted to see it backed up by in-play stats, just to be sure. After all, while Stoke appeared to be strong at home against bottom half teams, they had only scored 11 goals at home in their 9 home games overall.

I didn't have high confidence and decided to choose between backing Stoke for the half-time or full-time win in-play after seeing how the game started. In-play stats showed the home side well on top, in fact by half-time Stoke were leading the corner count 5-0 and the shot count 10-3.

Around the 20' mark I backed Stoke to be leading at half-time at 3.40 and drip-layed the draw, just in case Watford could sneak a goal.

On 45+3' Stoke scored and I had £20.66 profit in the bank.

I didn't touch anything in the second half as Stoke cruised to an easy 2-0 win.

Crystal Palace v Swansea City

Nothing of note in Team Stats here, except that two poor teams were playing each other. The market fancied a home win and that was not a surprise, given that Swansea were in poor form and their last game was a 0-3 loss at home against Bournemouth.

This was Palace's first home game under new manager Sam Allardyce and I expected them to be fired up. I was watching the in-play stats for signs that they were attacking, but at half-time they were trailing 1-2 on the corner count and 1-6 on the shot count.

With Swansea obviously having a go, after 30' I decided to back the half-time away win at 7.00 for a small stake and lay the draw to cover a home goal.

It was 0-1 on 42' and I traded to lock in a profit of £16.18.

I tracked the in-play stats throughout the second half, looking for signs of life from Big Sam's new team. By 80' there had been 4 second half corners (3 for Palace) and 5 shots (4 for Palace). They were obviously having a go, but were not forcing as many corners and shots as I'd expect from a team which was really dominating the game.

Rather than lay Swansea at 1.40, I decided to lay U1.5 goals at 1.80 instead so that a goal either way would count. I also layed U2.5 goals at 1.10 as it was cheap and both teams needed a win. If there was a quick equaliser then a winner was on the cards and I'd have it covered for peanuts.

Palace equalised on 83' before Swansea regained the lead on 88', landing another £20 profit.

This game ended up returning my biggest profit of the night, largely thanks to the in-play stats.

AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal

The agony of being a Bournemouth fan... though it's not all bad these days!

Team Stats showed me that Bournemouth had scored in 5/6 home games against top half teams and that Arsenal had gone BTS in all of their away games against top half teams, though I'm not sure that Bournemouth fit that description too strongly just yet.

I danced in the street as the Cherries took a 2-0 first half lead! However, after many years of watching Bournemouth surrender leads against the likes of Darlington, Rochdale and Shrewsbury, I was nervous.

On 30' I layed Bournemouth in the half-time market at 1.02 which cost me just £1.07 in order to potentially bank £60 profit. There was every chance of Arsenal pulling a quick goal back and then I could have traded, but it was more of a speculative effort.

At half-time - and with a profit already locked in from the first halves at Stoke and Palace - I decided to cover some goals markets.

In my previous case study, I had layed the underdog and backed the favourite, but that was 0-1 with the favourite at home. On this occasion, I didn't necessarily expect Arsenal to win (I hoped they wouldn't!) but they had to go all out attack and would, perhaps, get hit on the break.

By laying U4.5 goals at 1.70 I would have an Arsenal comeback win covered, but also a 3-2/4-1 win for Bournemouth; it was much more flexible.

As they were so cheap, I also layed U5.5, U6.5, U7.5 and U8.5 goals. After all, it was only a few weeks previously that Liverpool were 0-2 up at Bournemouth and lost 4-3.

Incredibly, Bournemouth scored a third goal on 58' and Eddie Howe decided to shut up shop, abandoning the attacking play which had been working so well all night. A couple of defensive subs later and Arsenal pulled a goal back.

At this point, I decided to green up my U4.5 lay to guarantee a profit of £8.23. It more than covered my other lays and, at 3-1, Bournemouth were still two goals ahead and trying to kill the game.

It then went 3-2 but, rather than green up my U5.5 lay, I covered liability only and left all the profit on the overs. There were two reasons for this:

1. Arsenal were now only one goal down so would give everything they had until the final whistle, whereas at two goals down they'd be a little less motivated as time ran out.
2. I had already ensured a profit from these speculative trades to add to my other profits on the night, so I had no problem with letting this one run for the potential of a bigger profit.

Arsenal's equaliser came on 90+2' (along with many, many bad words from my mouth!) but it gave me another £16.63 profit.

So, from this game I made a total of £21.46.

Trading Summary

There are trading angles in most games, but the art of a trader is to find strong opportunities at the right prices.

At Stoke I fancied a home win, but I didn't simply back Stoke at 1.80 or so before the game. I waited for confirmation that they were playing as expected and found a much better price; better risk/reward.

If it had been 0-0 at half-time I still had the second half, but I wouldn't have rushed into anything. If Stoke had gone 1-0 up and I missed a trade, so be it. I don't go for that, "I was just going to back them, gutted I missed out" rubbish. If it was a strong enough trade, I'd have already been in it!

Palace were also odds-on to win, but there was no way on earth I'd have backed them at that price! I expected them to be fired up and win - as teams tend to do under a new manager - but this wasn't Allardyce's first game in charge. I didn't stick doggedly to my pre-match opinion, questioned myself after the in-play stats didn't support it and found a big priced opportunity.

If it had been 0-0 at half-time, I may have found something in the second half or perhaps not. One thing's for sure though... at odds of 7.00 I only need to hit a winner now and again for an overall profit. I know it's not even going to be near a 50% strike rate at that price!

The Bournemouth game was a case of taking advantage of strong favourites bouncing back. I was using profits already banked, so very little risk and I removed all of that by trading at 3-1. As a Bournemouth fan I wanted the game to end 3-0, but as a trader it was a very satisfying profit, albeit at small stakes.

Nope, we don't share email addresses with anyone.

Over at our Trade Your Bets site, Kevin Laverick set out to turn a £1,000 bank into £30,000 within three years by trading football. When you break it down, the maths are very simple; increase your bank by 10% on average per month and by the end of month 36 you'll have £30,913.

Trading stakes for the challenge started at £10 per point and are already up to £29. Of course, stake sizes cannot rise indefinitely, but for now it's no problem to get in and out of trades.

Saturday 31st December 2016 marked exactly a year since the £30k Challenge started and it was pretty much on track, just £218 short of the £3,138 12 month target. Month 13 should be up to £3,452 and it accelerates through 2017 to end at £9,850.

Here is an excerpt from an email sent out to Trade Your Bets members by Kevin:

My starting premise was to trade 100 selections per month, with an average liability of 1 point on each trade, and to maintain an edge of 10%. If I could do that I would be able to manage the feat.

So I was looking to trade 1200 games per year... in fact in this first year I have only traded 600 games. Just half of what my aim was. By only trading half the games that makes the task even more difficult than it was in the first place.

I intended my average liability to be 1 point per trade... in fact it was only 0.75 point per trade. Obviously this meant that my staking was slightly wrong, by around 25%. Again this would make the task harder too.

My aim was to maintain an edge of 10% through the year... in fact I did better than that. The actual ROI for the year as a whole was 22.5%, more than double the intended figure. If I could maintain that sort of edge it would of course make the task easier.

In total figures I started with a Bank of £1,000 and it now stands at £2,920, with an ROI of 22.5%.

If you look at the P/L worm you will see that there has been no discernible downturns at all during the year. There have been a couple of flat spots in April and September, but apart from those it has been a tale of an upward progression, and hopefully I can keep that going in 2017.

If I can treble the Bank each year then that would mean I would be within touching distance of the target after 3 years.

• Year 1 £1k to £3k
• Year 2 £3k to £9k
• Year 3 £9k to £27k

So I am not a million miles away from my target at the end of the first year, even though I only played half the games I needed to and used far less stake than I needed to. In fact, had I played double the games and used larger stakes I would be standing with a Bank of £11.4k already, at the ROI of 22.5%. So things are pretty much on target.

In Year 2 what I will be striving to do is to increase the number of games I play and use bigger stakes. To this end I will be looking for around 100 trades each month and my maximum liability on any trade will be 2 points, but more generally it will be between 1 to 1.5 point.

During the year I will be introducing you to new markets that you may not have used before, and introducing you to new ways of trading that you may not have seen before. What I don't want to do though is to drop my ROI below 10%. In fact it would be a fantastic year if I could maintain it somewhere near the 20% I managed in 2016.

Kevin Laverick 
Professional Trader

Kevin posts the trades he is looking at ahead of kick-off in the Trade Your Bets Members Area and sends out an email review of how he traded each one. From these reviews, members learn new trading techniques and apply them to future £30k Challenge selections or their own trades.

In order that results are fully verified, accurate and honest, Kevin posts his trading moves in-play in the Goal Profits chat room. This also allows those who are members of both Trade Your Bets and Goal Profits to follow along live.

Of course, if you join Trade Your Bets now and want to follow the £30k Challenge, you can do that. Start with a £1,000 bank - less if you want to - and follow the selections throughout the year.

Once Kevin hits his £30k target he may continue upward or start again. There's at least a couple of years to figure that out.

As the profit targets accelerate, it will become tougher to stay on track. Even if it takes an extra year to complete though, who would be unhappy with a £30,000 trading bank?

Becoming a professional Betfair trader is the ultimate dream for many, whether it be football trading, tennis, horses or something else entirely. It's certainly achievable - there are people doing it - but how do you go from frustrated gambler to trading Betfair for a living?

In this post I'll talk about expectations and motivation, what a sports trader does day to day, what you can look forward to as a full-time trader and how to actually get there.

What are your expectations?

I really hope that this doesn't come as a surprise to you, but... you will never be able to buy a few systems, quit your job and then start to pull money out of the betting exchanges the next morning. They are not magical ATMs and it is not possible to find systems which "unlock the secrets of Betfair for five minutes work each week".

If you have searched for something like, "how to make money on Betfair fast" or the "easiest way to make money betting" you're going to need to change your mindset quite considerably before you can even think about sports trading for a living.

After all, the only thing you can do fast on Betfair is blow your bank!

If you are planning to rely on that bank to pay your way through life, you'd better make sure that your number one priority is to protect it.

Another thing... while it is possible to learn the fundamentals, you can only become an experienced trader by trading. Sounds obvious when it's put like that, but you would not believe the amount of people who start trading football and immediately expect to make money.

And how could that even be possible?

Think about it... Betfair is full of very clever and ruthless traders whose sole intention is to take your money. What makes anyone think that they are going to outsmart these other traders as soon as they start trading?

As Kevin Laverick found out - having played and managed football at a good level - sports knowledge doesn't get you very far; it's all about risk/reward, probabilities, discipline, patience and so on.

So... from day one, make sure that your expectations are reasonable and realistic; becoming a professional sports trader is going to take time and hard work.

Find your motivation

Ask yourself... why do you want to trade on Betfair for a living?

If it's because you want to impress your mates down the pub, you're going to struggle to remain motivated when the going gets tough. If you dream of laying on a desert island and logging into Betfair every now and again to top up your bank account, you're living in a fantasy world.

So why is it that you are reading this?

There are lots of emotions which drive our motivations; love and hate perhaps being the strongest. Why do you want to make money on Betfair? What is going to keep you focused and drive you forward?

Here are some examples:

What are your motivations?​

Focus more on the positives than the negatives; your hopes and dreams rather than fears. Positive emotions are stronger and longer lasting. After all, you will love your family long after you've left the job you hate.​

The more motivations you can find, the better. When trading seems difficult - or even impossible - you will refer back to your list, re-focus, clear your head and try again. Without strong motivation, you are far more likely to quit and that doesn't get you anywhere.

What does a sports trader do?

If you think that football traders sit down all day watching football, you're probably going to be disappointed. Apart from watching football socially, I can't remember the last time I watched a game while trading - it's just not necessary.

I do know of some traders who watch football matches and even a few who believe that they can "read a game" but the vast majority can't do that. Of course, everyone is different and if you want to watch matches as you trade, you can absolutely do that.

Many football traders don't watch the games they're trading

Football trading is more about maths and probability than it is about football. It will be much more useful for you to know the probability of a first half goal than it will be to know whether Wayne Rooney is playing or not.

Of course, team news can present scalping opportunities but that's another discussion.

In order to make a profit, football traders identify strong opportunities and then find good risk/reward in the markets. That's all there is to it; I show you exactly how easy it is in this case study.

I would say that 90% of my time is spent carrying out research, while the other 10% is spent trading. I analyse upcoming fixtures in order to identify trading angles, test new systems and, of course, I monitor existing systems to ensure that they are still profitable.

It's certainly not a case of building a portfolio of trading systems and then trading for the next 20 years. Betfair markets are constantly evolving and traders must move with them - or fail.

With that in mind, make sure that you allocate a good proportion of your time to system analysis (or subscribe to a service such as Goal Profits which does it for you).

When trading becomes your job

Like any job, trading has good and bad points. Personally, I think that there are far more positives!

Perhaps the best part is being able to work from home. There's no commute and no traffic to worry about; your alarm goes off in the morning, you switch the coffee machine on and get to work.

Bear in mind though that you won't have a boss peering over your shoulder and you will have to motivate yourself. Getting up at 10am and then watching daytime TV for a few hours will make you exactly £0.00 profit.

There are lots of ways to self-motivate in order to get tasks done, but money shouldn't be one of them. If you start to worry about paying bills, you're going to fall into the trap of entering weak trades in order to try and hit targets.

What works for me is making a list of tasks and then doing them in the order that they're written down. If I do the easy stuff first, I'm left with the harder tasks and I'm more likely to procrastinate.

I also find that working overnight helps. As well as keeping track of fixtures in North and South America, I can plough through my to-do list without being bombarded by emails. That might not suit you though, especially if you have a family.

Working from home has certain benefits...

A Betfair trader does not have the security of a salary, does not enjoy holiday pay or sick pay when 'man flu' hits. However, if you're making more money than you were in your old job then you can afford to save more - and you should save as much as you can to build your financial security.

Although you can sit in front of the TV with your laptop on your knees, you will be far more productive if you have a dedicated work space. Shut yourself away, work through your to-do list and then relax in front of the TV once you're done.

There are certainly times when I trade while watching TV, but I will have already done my research on the games and I can hit 'pause' if I need to concentrate for a few minutes.

Explain to your partner that, when Flashscores lets out a cheer for a goal, it's time for you to work. Even if it's just for a few seconds, you need some peace and quiet in order to check trading positions. It really helps when your partner knows what that noise means!

Steve Brown
Professional Trader

In my early trading days, I manually updated stats spreadsheets every day because no website provided all the trading stats necessary - and I still haven't found a single one which does. There are plenty of free stats websites out there, but they're all aimed at hobby gamblers who sign up to their bookie offers. These sites are of little use to professional traders.

Even tracking a dozen or so leagues during the winter would take a huge amount of time - and that was before I even traded or worked on developing and testing new systems. I would regularly clock up 80+ hours per week in order to get it all done.

Thankfully, the Team Stats software at Goal Profits takes most of that time-consuming admin work away and I simply couldn't trade without it these days. Rather than limited stats over a small number of leagues, I have every number I could ever dream of for 65 leagues worldwide - and no human-error mistakes to spot and correct. Team Stats has been literally life-changing!

I now spend less time researching trades, but I am able to dig into the numbers in much more detail. Doing this has transformed my trading results and given me much more time to develop other trading angles.

Stats are the tools of the trade (no pun intended!) and only the best will ever be good enough.

Finally - and this is something which most new traders don't even consider - you must dedicate time to your health. You will be spending a lot of time at your desk rather than walking to work, wandering around the office, unloading a delivery van, or whatever it was that would get your body moving.

Why not stand while trading?

Here are some health tips:

In other words, make sure you move and burn some calories!

And on the subject of calories... watch what you eat. It's very easy to sit at your desk all day and snack, so don't keep a bag of toffees in your top drawer! Just as with trading itself, be disciplined.

Remember... healthy body, healthy mind.

Put a plan together

Ok... so you've decided that you really want to become a pro trader and you have identified strong motivations which are going to be your fuel.

Now, you need a plan. Exactly how are you going to make this happen?

Proof

Unless you're crazy, you're not going to quit your job before learning how to trade and proving that you have the experience and discipline to make a long-term profit. So the first stage is to show that you can do it. You might not need to prove it to your partner too, if he or she isn't sure!

It is very difficult to put a time-frame on this part so you're going to have to be flexible. Aim for an absolute minimum of six profitable months in a row - preferably more - in order to prove to yourself (and your partner) that you're ready.

And be honest with yourself... this isn't a bragging contest so be sure to record results properly.

This is the stage at which quitters quit, usually picking out a poor excuse to explain why it's 'not their fault'. "I don't have time" is the most common, followed by "I'm too busy at work". Both of those are absolute rubbish. If you want it enough, you find a way - same as anything in life.

Hardly anyone quits after the 'proof' stage; after this it's just a matter of time.

Transition

Once you've proven to yourself that you are disciplined and skilled enough to trade profitably over a good amount of time, decide how you're going to make the transition from 'worker' to 'trader'.

You could, of course, just quit your job and immediately dedicate all of your time to football trading. A handful of Goal Profits members have done that, but it's a very aggressive approach and not something I'd be comfortable with myself.

A better way is to save up until you have enough to cover your bills for the next six months (minimum). There are two big benefits to this method:

1. Your trading decisions will not be under pressure from day one
2. All the profit you make for the next six months (or more) will strengthen your trading bank

My recommendation is to transition gradually from full-time working to part-time working/trading, then from part-time working/trading to full-time trading. This can be done over many months so that you do not put yourself under pressure.

You may even be able to stay with your current employer and gradually cut hours or, if getting out of that job is one of your motivations, look for something else.

Settling in

It's likely to be quite a change for you - and your family - when you become a full-time trader.

You will be spending much more time at home and that takes some adjustment. After all, a bit of space tends to be good for relationships. You will also have a completely new routine to settle into; including your new health regime!

You're also going to view money differently. Whereas before it would magically arrive in your bank account every month on payday, that won't be the case any longer. You will be working for every penny you make and that is likely to make you very protective of it!

This one really does take time to adjust to and it's why I recommend going part-time first; it's much easier to make these changes and get used to them before you're 'all in'.

You may even find yourself in the same position as a number of Goal Profits members who have started the transition and stuck at part-time because they enjoy it so much.

They still get out of the house to work - though it's far less stressful - and then they get the enjoyment of trading too. Best of both worlds!

If trading turns out not to be all you dreamed of, then you can always go back to work again... but I bet you don't!

Put your plan into action

Trading isn't easy, otherwise no-one would go to work on a Monday morning. It is more about mindset than it is systems and strategies, and that takes time to develop. There are no shortcuts!

The vast majority who set out to become full-time traders will not succeed. Many will quit because they are too lazy and thought it was all glamour and riches, while others simply don't want it enough.

Most will end up trading part-time - and that's a great place to be. You can earn a significant amount from trading part-time which will pay for a few luxuries in life or help build a retirement fund.

The only certainty is that everyone is different. Decide what you want and GO FOR IT!

Lay the draw – also known as LTD – is one of the oldest Betfair football trading strategies.

As Betfair has grown in popularity and betting exchange markets evolved, football traders have had to adjust the way they select and trade matches.

This series of videos is based on an original LTD trading article. If you would prefer to read the text version, click the button below.

Part 1: How Does Lay the Draw Work?

Part 2: How Has Lay the Draw Changed?

Part 3: Is it Still Worth Bothering With LTD?

Part 4: LTD Match Selection

Part 5: Use Insurance or Not?

Part 6: Trading Out & Managing Losses?

Part 7: Metaltone Strategy

Part 8: How I Lay the Draw Nowadays

On Wednesday 18th January, Nantes played Caen in France's Ligue 1. At first glance there was nothing of interest from a trading point of view, but I set out to dig deeper into our Team Stats pages in case there was something I could use at some stage of the game.

I ended up making a simple set-and-forget profit of £50 and here's exactly how I did it.​

The Research

Firstly, I looked at the main trading stats. I saw plenty of red, but not much green. In fact, the only consistent green came in Caen's away games against bottom half teams.

I then looked at the league table analysis page in the Goal Profits Members Area. That was a similar tale of woe, with Nantes bottom of the home table and Caen bottom of the away table! Both teams were also below par in the first half and second half tables.

The only point of interest was Nantes being 9th and Caen 10th in the form table, but even that was skewed. While Nantes were riding high (5th) in the away form table, at home they were 16th. And Caen were placed 5th in the home form table, but 18th away.

I did find something in the bottom half table; Nantes' record at home v bottom half teams was W2 D1 L1 while Caen had gone W0 D0 L4 away. When digging further, I saw that both of Nantes' victories were 1-0 and the draw was 0-0. The loss was 0-3 and I couldn't see that happening in this game.

I knew from earlier that Caen's games away at bottom half teams had seen goals. However, these 4 were the only away games that Caen had scored in and Nantes had kept a clean sheet in 4/9 games at home.

Click to enlarge

I was leaning heavily towards a low scoring game, perhaps 0-0/1-0, considering the facts that Caen had only kept a single clean sheet away and 3/4 Nantes home games had ended on those scores.

The Goal Patterns Team Stats page was interesting; showing me that Caen had not taken the lead in any of their 9 away games this season. I could also see that Nantes had scored first at home only 3 times and 2 of those ended 1-0.

Again, that pointed to a low scoring game - perhaps even 0-0. After all, I already knew that Nantes had scored in only 4 of their 9 home games and Caen had only scored in 4/9 away.

Checking the Betfair markets, Nantes were favourites though priced well above 2.00. Under 2.5 goals was priced at 1.70 which meant the markets agreed that a low scoring game was most likely.​

The Decision

So now came the interesting part... looking for the best risk/reward.

I was prepared to risk up to £100, so here were the options I considered:

I liked the look of option 5 and checked the 'Early Bird' strategy page in the Goal Profits Members Area. This showed 45% value for Nantes to score first, but not much liquidity. That was ok as I would not need to trade out.

The Bet

There was a lot to support 0-0/1-0 and I decided to go with the 'Next Goal' market. It meant I'd be in a winning position at 0-0 and a goal for Nantes would land the full profit with no need to trade.

I placed my bet after 15 minutes had been played, just to make sure that the game started as expected. I didn't want to see Caen forcing lots of shots and corners, though Nantes attacking would have been fine.

It did cost me a little more to wait as the price rose to 3.10, but it was worth that to be able to check how the game had started. My liability was slightly higher than £100 too, in order to target exactly£50 profit after commission.

Trading Mindset

Had I missed a Nantes goal by waiting, that would be ok - no risk and no loss. Yes, I miss a number of (would be) winners but - much more importantly - I miss (would be) losers.​

I don't get annoyed by missing out on opportunities like many novice traders do. It's a question of mindset; being prepared to wait for the perfect conditions before putting my money at risk.

There's a reason why impatient traders lose money long-term; and not just when trading football on Betfair either!

As the game approached an hour played, the score was still 0-0. I was still in a winning position.

The in-play stats at this point were 3-1 corners and 11-5 shots in favour of Nantes which was just what I wanted to see. Of course, it only takes one shot for a goal so I was still in danger of losing my £100 and I decided to look at options for trading out - or at least reducing the liability.​

I could have removed my liability, but I would have also be losing 60% of my potential profit. I decided that with the in-play stats firmly in my favour, I would hang on for another 10 minutes and then check prices again.

I could have also traded out, securing around £15 profit no matter which team scored first (or didn't).

Time decay was working with me, increasing the price to back Caen with every passing minute and, therefore, increasing my potential profit should I have wished to trade out.​

The Winner

On 65' the home team scored the goal I'd been waiting for and my £50 profit was in the bank. ​The game ended 1-0 - as expected - and my trading for the day was done.

A dead easy winner, identified by digging into our Team Stats pages. I know nothing about either team, their players or manager; and nor do you have a need to. In order to make consistent profits, all you need is access to the Goal Profits Members Area - click here.

£50 profit from no more than 5 minutes ​of research and that's the monthly subscription covered, plus a profit on top. Now, the next 29 days worth of profits are free!

I have written a number of case studies which explain just how quick and easy it is to profit from football trading with Team Stats.

A couple of days ago I published this article which shows a simple £50 profit banked from the game between Nantes and Caen. Tonight, I took that £50 and found another strong trade to profit from.

Friday evenings during the winter generally have a French Ligue 1 fixture, a German Bundesliga fixture, one from the Dutch Eredivisie and something in the Spanish Primera. Fridays also feature busy league programmes in the French Ligue 2 and Dutch Jupiler.

Lots to choose from and plenty of temptation. If you want to make a long-term profit from football trading on Betfair, you simply must avoid weak trades and go after the very best opportunities only.

The Research

Scanning through the 'League Table Analysis' page (which all Goal Profits members have full access to) Ajaccio v Orléans stands out very clearly.

All is looking good so far, the only stat I don't like is...

However, I'm happy to discount it on this occasion due to the strength of the other stats and the fact that Orléans' overall away record is W0 D2 L7.

When I switch over to the Team Stats 'Goal Patterns' page I see that Ajaccio have taken the lead in 7/10 home games. They fell behind in their other 3 home games, but all of them then went 1-1. Orléans have only taken the lead in 3/9 away and each of those 3 went 1-1.

Therefore, if I were to back Ajaccio and the score went 0-1 with plenty of time left, I could lay Orléans and reasonably expect an equaliser. Good to know.

The 'Trading Stats' page shows me that Ajaccio have scored in all 10 of their home games this season, while Orléans have conceded in 7/9 away. While Ajaccio have also conceded in 7/10 at home, Orléans have only managed to score in 3/9 away (a total of 4 goals).

I can also see that Ajaccio have scored in 7/10 first halves at home, whereas Orléans have scored in 3/9 first halves away - and no second halves at all.

On the face of it, I'm looking at a home win. It could possibly be 1-1 at half-time if Orléans get a goal, but then I'd expect Ajaccio to go on and win in the second half (they've scored in 6/10 second halves). So perhaps a 2-0/2-1 final score.

The Trade

The Betfair Match Odds market offered a generous 2.32 for the home win. Considering the strength of the stats I'd uncovered, that represented fantastic value.

At that price, I only need a 50% set-and-forget strike rate for a profit overall and, if I keep doing that over and over, my bank will grow very nicely.

I also had the option of trading at any time that Ajaccio were in the lead in order to reduce - or completely remove - the liability.

I backed the home win at 2.32 for £50 and let the game go in-play.​

Ajaccio were well on top by half-time, leading the corner count 4-1 and the shot count 9-1. It was exactly what I wanted to see, all that was missing was a goal.

After 70 minutes had been played, the in-play stats had risen further; corners 7-3 and shots 17-2. ​I was very confident of a goal, but layed the draw just in case the home side were caught out.

It increased my liability, but covered a goal for either team and virtually doubled my profit on Ajaccio. This more aggressive approach doesn't suit all traders, but pays off in the right circumstances.

The Winner

Ajaccio got their winning goal on 74' and I secured a profit, just in case there happened to be an equaliser.

A very simple trade, based on rock solid stats and a generous market price. And that's all there is to football trading; find strong opportunities at good prices, rinse and repeat, watch your bank grow.

Here are some free football stats we've put together to introduce you to our unique Team Stats software. These stats are updated daily for all 65 worldwide leagues we cover, so you may well find some winners too!

Even the first Team Stats page you will have access to as a Goal Profits member has far more information for every upcoming fixture, but you will get a good idea of what to expect below.

You can see kick-off times, home and away teams (with their league positions in brackets) and then the number of games played this season (home team at home, away team away).

The next three columns show the percentage of games won, drawn and lost by each team. Again, these are home games won by the home team and away games won by the away team.​

Following those, you have the percentage of games for each team which went over 1.5 goals, over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals. Finally, there's a 'BTS' column which stands for 'Both Teams to Score'.

Hover over column headings for explanations of the stats, click on team names ​to see all of their home and away scores this season (half-time as well as full-time) and click on the league name to see the current league table.

Note: Goal Profits members have access to 30+ tables for each league, including home, away, form, attack, defence, etc. There's also a 'League Table Analysis' page which identifies fantastic value bets and trades in no time at all.

The full version provides every football trading stat that anyone needs. We have a number of professional, full-time traders who are Goal Profits members purely for Team Stats... it's that good!

Since first developing Team Stats in 2013, we have been constantly finding ways to improve it. There are updates - even complete pages - being worked on throughout the year so that our members continue to enjoy a significant advantage over everyone else trading on Betfair.

It's not just the "quick and easy" aspect either; I simply couldn't keep stats for this many leagues before and missed countless opportunities for profit.

Free stats sites - we all know them - are not designed with football traders in mind and don't provide everything we need. All they want to do is attract gamblers who sign up to their bookie offers.

I know from experience that my profits significantly increased once I had access to Team Stats and many members have found exactly the same.

Far too many traders still think that the key to long-term success is hitting lots of winners. We all need winners, of course, but the focus for smart traders is always on value. After all, find value consistently and profits will follow.

Tonight, many gamblers were 'lumping on' the likes of Manchester United to beat Hull and Newcastle to beat QPR at silly odds and neither of them won!

I wasn't planning to trade this evening, but I was chatting to Kevin on the phone and decided to write another case study, similar to the others I've done recently. If you missed them, click here to read how I made 4.67pts profit in 2 hours (or keep reading this one - I made a bigger profit this time!).

Before the fixtures kicked off I spent 15 minutes scanning Team Stats for strong trading opportunities. I picked out 5 trades and they all went on to win.

It simply doesn't get any quicker or easier to make a good profit from football trading on Betfair. I didn't even use large stakes, just small affordable amounts.

Here's exactly how I made £49.77 football trading profit from 5 value trades:

Stoke v Everton

This was dead simple. Stoke had been leading at half-time in 4 of their last 5 home games, while Everton had not been leading in any away game this season. I considered backing Stoke to win the first half, but Everton had been level at half-time in their last 4 away games.

I decided to back the half-time draw at 2.32 (£10) and lay Everton (first half) at 3.30 (£10). I was planning to lay some of the profit from the draw after 20 minutes or so in order to reduce the red on Everton, but Stoke took an early lead. This left me with scratch on the home win and a nice profit on the draw; a very safe position.

Everton equalised on 39' and I was able to lay the draw to secure £16.49 profit.

Backing Stoke to win the first half would have been a profit too as I'd have traded at 1-0. I don't know if it would have been more or less as I didn't track price movements, but either way was good.

The key was matching up Stoke's strong first half performance at home and Everton's poor first half record away. A gold star to Team Stats for providing that information.

Blackburn v Leeds

Blackburn are struggling this season, but Team Stats showed me that they play much better at home than away. They had only been behind at half-time once in their last 9 home games and that was to league leaders Brighton. Leeds had only been ahead twice at half-time away all season and their away stats were all well below their home performance.

I did exactly the same here as at Stoke; backed the half-time draw at 2.10 (£10) and layed Leeds to be leading at half-time at 3.30 (£10). I started to lay profit from the draw around the 25' mark and by the time 35 minutes had been played, I was left with £6.13 profit if it stayed 0-0, £5.00 profit if Leeds were to score or £36.41 if Blackburn were able to sneak a goal.

The score at half-time was 0-0 and that was another profit in the bank.

These two first half trades were fairly aggressive as a goal the wrong way would have left me with work to do. However, I had the two most likely outcomes covered in each and I was comfortable with the risk/reward.

That was enough trading for the first half and I moved on to a couple of full match opportunities.

Hearts v Rangers

This was not the strongest, but Team Stats showed me that Hearts were slightly better at home while Rangers were a little below their average performance away. For example, Hearts were 4th in the overall league table but 3rd in the home table and 3rd in the first half table, while Rangers were 2nd in the league overall but 3rd in the away table (6th in the first half table).

Remember I talked about value?

What really sealed this trade was that I could back Hearts at 3.25 (£10). A strong home team at home to a slightly weaker away team at that price was too good to refuse, especially as Hearts had already beaten Rangers 2-0 at home this season. What value!

It was 1-0 after 4' and I immediately layed Hearts at 1.80 (£10) so that if they didn't win, I wouldn't lose a penny. Now I had a free bet. Early in the second half the score was 3-1 and I locked in £12.11 profit no matter what else happened.

Great risk/reward here; £10 to win £12.11 at 121% ROI (return on investment). Remember too that after only 4 minutes had been played, it was zero risk as I had traded!

Partick v St Johnstone

A similar story with this one. According to Team Stats, St Johnstone generally play above their position in away games, while Partick struggle at home.

Add the fact that earlier in the season this very same fixture had ended 0-2 and I was happy to back St Johnstone at 2.96 (£10). It just seemed as though the market was completely wrong.

I was a little worried in-play with Partick dominating the shot and corner counts, so when it went 0-1 I locked in a profit of £7.82. The final result was 0-1, but I was out with my profit long before then.

Burton v Fulham

Team Stats showed me that Fulham were 11th in the overall league table but:

• 6th in the away table
• 2nd in the first half away table
• 9th in second half away table
• 10th in the away form table
• 3rd best away attack
• 5th best away defence

Burton were largely performing at the level of their overall league position, but bottom of the home form table. Their first half performance at home was better and Fulham were only 1.93 to back, so I let the game go in-play. I don't like backing under 2.00 - especially away teams.

Around the 40' mark, Fulham were well on top going by the shot and corner counts, so I backed the away win at 2.24 (£10). It was 0-1 on 48' and I greened up for £7.23 profit.

With the favourites ahead, playing well and profits locked in elsewhere I could have let it run - the game ended 0-2 - but by that point I was happy to bank the extra profit and seal a good evening.

Summary

A couple of first half trades, two full match trades and one in-play for a nice balance to the evening.

As I said right at the top, my research took ​around 15 minutes and then the trades themselves needed very little time. I reacted to goals here and there, but during the two hours that the games were in-play I watched a movie. It's not bad being paid to do that!

I banked almost £50 profit from no more than 30 minutes of my time yet there will still be some who try to tell me that football trading takes too long. Can you believe that?!

So... was tonight some sort of fluke?

Well, these are in-play trades I have posted in the Goal Profits trading chat room recently. I told members exactly what I was backing/laying so that they could follow if they wished.

(£1,286 profit to flat £100 stakes)

Of course, all members can achieve these sorts of results on their own with a bit of practice as they have access to exactly the same information as me. The key is being determined to succeed, rather than quitting at the first sign that Betfair isn't some sort of magic ATM which spits out money.

If you're keen to start trading football on Betfair with us, click here for all the details.

On Tuesday 28th February, 2017 there were a number of English fixtures; especially in the lower leagues. I picked out five fixtures of interest and ended up with a profit of £110.35 (after Betfair commission) even though my 'banker' for the night went very wrong.

A couple of goals the right way late on would have boosted my profit to around £350, but you'll never hear me complain about my trading bank getting bigger!

When looking at multiple football matches, it's important to view them as just one big trade and adjust accordingly. As all successful football traders will tell you, avoiding losses is far more important than hitting winners so always have an eye on the bigger picture.

My Daily Shortlist

As always, I carried out all of my research before any of the matches kicked off. As well as allowing me to concentrate fully when matches are in-play, it also ensures that I don't make any hasty - and emotional - decisions if things are going wrong.

I will often allow myself one "off-piste" trade per session, but I didn't need anything tonight.

This was my shortlist:

Of course, I don't need a home team to win in order to make a profit from a home win trade, I just need them to get in front at some point.

Staking

We all know that compounding is very powerful; that is increasing stakes in line with bank size.

For example, if you divide a £1,000 trading bank into 100pts and make 10pts profit each month - resetting the value of a point at the beginning of each month - after just three years your bank will be worth £30,000.

10pts per month... that's around 0.3pts per day. Just £3 profit from a £1,000 bank.

Why doesn't everyone just do that? It's so simple when broken down!

Well... most inexperienced traders are impatient and go for bigger wins. They are probably used to the adrenaline rush of gambling and treat football trading more as entertainment than a serious profit-making venture. Then there are many who reach their daily target but don't stop trading.

As always, mindset and discipline will make or break you as a trader.

With that small daily target in mind, I definitely didn't need to go in all guns blazing. I picked out Northampton Town v Oldham Athletic as my 'banker' for the night and built the other trades around it. Small profits here and there would chip away at a larger liability, should all go wrong.

You will also notice that I spread my trades around the first half, second half and 90 minutes (home and away). They also vary in price, from 2.10 all the way up to 4.30.

First Half Trades

Just one 'true' first half trade - Hartlepool United v Crewe Alexandra. I originally intended to go for Hartlepool to score first, but there was no money in the 'Next Goal' market. Most games have a first half goal, so it follows that backing Hartlepool to win the first half is a similar trade. It is restricted, of course, to the first 45 minutes but the price is much higher. Swings and roundabouts.

I backed Hartlepool to win the first half at 3.90 (£10) and set up a lay on the draw at 1.80 (£15). That was a total of £22 liability, but a nice green on the home win and small green on the away win should Crewe score.

I also backed Hartlepool to score first at 2.30 (£10) though it wasn't matched even half an hour into the game. The 'Next Goal' market at Betfair suffers from poor liquidity in the smaller leagues.

With my two 90' trades I backed Northampton to win at 2.22 (£50) and Sutton to win at 2.26 (£10). It was a much smaller amount at Sutton because of less liquidity in the market and the fact it was a National League game, so less consistent performances from teams.

Oldham took the lead at Northampton on 23'. This was a surprise since Northampton had taken the lead in 11/16 home games and Oldham had fallen behind in 10/17 away. However, I had gone in with half the full stake I had allowed for the trade and that gave me something to work with. I layed Oldham at 1.84 (£60) which took my liability up to £100.

Sutton took the lead on 31' and I immediately layed them at 1.25 (£10) so that it was now a no-lose bet.

In the game at Bradford, it had gone 0-1 on 4' and then 1-1 on 22'. I decided to back MK Dons for £25 in a series of £5 bets as the price rose. However, only two of them were matched before the away team went back in front on 35'. Again, I layed to give myself a no-lose bet on the away win. Just as well too, with Bradford equalising for a second time on 43'.

There had been plenty of corners and shots at Hartlepool, but it took until 45' for the home side to score. The 'Next Goal' back had also been matched, so a total of £54.27 profit in the pot.

Half-Time Position

At half-time, I had a good profit already banked at Hartlepool and a couple of free bets at Sutton and Bradford. I could have locked in a profit at Sutton, but they were ahead 3-0 on corners and 11-3 on shots so I felt quite safe to leave it a while.

My only concern at this point was Northampton, though they were leading the corner count 5-1 and the shot count 10-8. As long as they were able to equalise, I'd be able to lock in a profit for the evening.

Northampton had won their last three at home and scored in 13/16 home games in total, while Oldham had only won one of their last six away and conceded in 13/17.

It wasn't a bad position to be in.

Second Half Trades

Barnet were already leading at Blackpool and went 0-2 up soon after half-time, so I couldn't get into that one. Reassuring that I had picked a strong trade though.

Do I worry when I 'miss out' on 'winners'? Of course not, I concentrate on the trades I have running. I'd much rather wish I was in a trade than out of one, that's for sure!

Bradford v MK Dons was looking pretty level from the in-play stats. An away goal would have been useful to hedge against my liability at Northampton, but it didn't come.

Sutton continued to dominate their game but it remained 1-0, so I decided to lock in £7.64 profit around the 70' mark.

That was a total of £61.91 profit locked in, but I needed Northampton to do something.

The in-play stats at Sixfields were fairly level and on 75' I decided to lay Under 1.5 Goals at 1.95 (£52.50). This added £50 liability to my trade, but that was covered already by profit in the bank. I could have waited for a lower price to lay more, but I was fairly confident that the home side would start attacking more as time ran out and that would present scoring opportunities at both ends.

Even another away goal would halve my liability and be enough - again treating everything as one big trade - to end up with a profit for the evening.

An equaliser was much more likely though and it came on 84'. I was then able to lay the draw to remove all liability from the away win and guarantee my overall profit. I could have equalised the loss on the draw and away win, but laying more added to the home win - now a potential £210.87 and a goal for Northampton was far from impossible.

I don't mind going a little aggressive in this situation; home team equalises fairly late, home fans get behind their team, away defence gets nervous, etc.

Perhaps Northampton overcooked it a little though as it was Oldham who snatched a winner on 90+2' and a quick lay reduced my loss to virtually nothing in the Match Odds market.

That made my £49.98 profit from the Over/Under 1.5 Goals market worth a lot more so, although I would have loved 2-1, I was still happy with the goal.

Summary

Out of my five planned trades, I managed to get into four of them.

Had I gone with set-and-forget bets I'd have hit two winners and two losers, but by trading I ended up with three profits and a scratch. I was a little disappointed that MK Dons took the lead twice and only ended with a draw, but they were underdogs and expected to lose.

Had Northampton scored a late winner rather than Oldham, my profit for the night would have been more than £300! Sure, it could have also ended 0-1 for a loss but the stats follow through long-term and the odd losing day is no problem at all.​

As soon as I banked the first half profit at Hartlepool, I had some green in the bank and knew my downside was far less than my potential profits. That gave me the confidence to be more aggressive at Northampton, which paid off nicely.

With some experience and patience, football trading is incredibly profitable. Our exclusive Team Stats software does most of the work, making research very quick indeed.

I spent no more than 15 minutes picking out these five trades this evening. I had my trading plan written down, put a movie on and ended the evening more than £100 better off.

Now to spend 15 minutes researching tomorrow's fixtures!

One of the most common mistakes we see from inexperienced traders is 'fiddling about'. Far too many think that they need to be forever tweaking their positions, when the best course of action is usually to do nothing.

It's often the same people who then complain that trading takes too much time... no wonder!​

I had a trade this evening in Scotland which didn't go to plan at first, but rather than feeling the need to lay this and back that, I was patient and waited for the right times to take action.

There are times when football trades simply go wrong and you have to take a loss. ​No-one on this planet makes a profit every time, but successful traders know when to increase liability in the hope of recovering some money, or accept that it's going to end red and move on.

In the end it was a fantastic profit and 250% ROI. Here's how my trade panned out.

After banking a profit of £110.35 yesterday, I looked through the fixtures for this evening to see if I could spot any trading opportunities. There was nothing standing out to me in England or France, then I looked at the Scottish Premiership fixtures.

Team Stats showed me that St Johnstone played above their overall league position of 5th in almost every category, whereas Rangers largely played below their overall 3rd position at home.

Digging a little further, I saw that St Johnstone had lost to Celtic this season, but drawn at all of the other top four teams; Aberdeen 0-0, Hearts 2-2 and Rangers 1-1.

I was quite surprised to find that I could back St Johnstone to win at 6.00 and the draw at 4.30. It seemed that - as per usual - Rangers had been backed down with little regard to their actual probability of winning the game; not at all uncommon with big teams.

With an away underdog I had no intention of risking too much, nor did I need to with such big prices. I backed St Johnstone to win at 6.00 (£10) and the draw at 4.30 (£15).

Of course, I didn't need an away win at full-time in order to profit from backing St Johnstone, but they had scored first at Rangers earlier in the season and led 1-2 at Hearts. A 0-0 draw would have been fine too!

I left the first half to run, setting up Flashscores on my phone so I could pop back to the computer and take out some liability if it went 0-1. Unfortunately for me though, Rangers took the lead on 22'.

I sat on my hands and did nothing (except continue to watch TV) because an equaliser would put me back into a profitable position.

At this point, many would have layed Rangers or layed 1-0 in the 'half-time score' market on Betfair, but there really wasn't a need to do a thing. An equaliser would have already been great for me, so no need to increase my liability while my trade was still very much recoverable.

The in-play stats favoured the home team at half-time and soon after it was 2-0. Not at all what I wanted! I decided that it was time to take action and layed Rangers at 1.05 (£100). This added just £5 to my initial £25 liability but gave me plenty of green to play with should St Johnstone pull a goal back quickly. I was now in recovery mode and looking for a quick 2-1 so I could scratch the trade.

In fact, it took the away side until 74' to get on the scoresheet. I could have reduced my liability to £10, but decided to stay in and lay U3.5 goals instead so that a goal either way would help out.

While I was looking at options, Rangers picked up a red card. It was now an easy decision to stay in. I could have layed U3.5 goals, but I couldn't see Rangers doing anything but defend and try to see the game out. Again, I did nothing when others would have felt the need to do something - anything.

St Johnstone equalised on 87' and I was able to lay the draw, ensuring an excellent profit whatever else happened in the closing minutes.

I left more on the draw as I had expected the game to end 2-2, but Rangers had other ideas and scored a winner on 90+1'.

Definitely a case of mixed emotions as it cost me £27 profit, but was a first goal at Ibrox for Emerson Hyndman (on loan from Bournemouth) so I wasn't too unhappy, being a Bournemouth fan!

I ended up with £75 profit from my £30 liability and a massive 250% ROI. I'll take that any day of the week and it was all thanks to Team Stats (plus some patience when things went wrong).

There were three Premier League fixtures played this evening (3rd January 2017).

As a Bournemouth fan, I was looking forward to the visit of Arsenal, but none of the games were of much interest to me at the start from a trading point of view.

Team Stats showed a few angles I could work with if in-play stats were supportive, but I didn't have much confidence so small stakes only to see if I could add a little to my trading bank.

As it turns out, almost everything went to plan (except for Bournemouth's collapse against Arsenal!) and I ended up with a profit of £78.30.

This case study looks at:

• Stoke City v Watford: Using in-play stats to confirm an angle identified in Team Stats
• Crystal Palace v Swansea City: Expecting one outcome, but backing another in-play
• AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal: Choosing goals markets over match odds markets

Stoke City v Watford

This was the one game with a clear angle identified by Team Stats. Stoke had played 9 games at home and scored in 6 of them, but against bottom half teams they had scored at home in 4/4. What's more, they had scored in every first half in those 4 games against bottom half teams.

A very strong angle, but I wanted to see it backed up by in-play stats, just to be sure. After all, while Stoke appeared to be strong at home against bottom half teams, they had only scored 11 goals at home in their 9 home games overall.

I didn't have high confidence and decided to choose between backing Stoke for the half-time or full-time win in-play after seeing how the game started. In-play stats showed the home side well on top, in fact by half-time Stoke were leading the corner count 5-0 and the shot count 10-3.

Around the 20' mark I backed Stoke to be leading at half-time at 3.40 and drip-layed the draw, just in case Watford could sneak a goal.

On 45+3' Stoke scored and I had £20.66 profit in the bank.

I didn't touch anything in the second half as Stoke cruised to an easy 2-0 win.

Crystal Palace v Swansea City

Nothing of note in Team Stats here, except that two poor teams were playing each other. The market fancied a home win and that was not a surprise, given that Swansea were in poor form and their last game was a 0-3 loss at home against Bournemouth.

This was Palace's first home game under new manager Sam Allardyce and I expected them to be fired up. I was watching the in-play stats for signs that they were attacking, but at half-time they were trailing 1-2 on the corner count and 1-6 on the shot count.

With Swansea obviously having a go, after 30' I decided to back the half-time away win at 7.00 for a small stake and lay the draw to cover a home goal.

It was 0-1 on 42' and I traded to lock in a profit of £16.18.

I tracked the in-play stats throughout the second half, looking for signs of life from Big Sam's new team. By 80' there had been 4 second half corners (3 for Palace) and 5 shots (4 for Palace). They were obviously having a go, but were not forcing as many corners and shots as I'd expect from a team which was really dominating the game.

Rather than lay Swansea at 1.40, I decided to lay U1.5 goals at 1.80 instead so that a goal either way would count. I also layed U2.5 goals at 1.10 as it was cheap and both teams needed a win. If there was a quick equaliser then a winner was on the cards and I'd have it covered for peanuts.

Palace equalised on 83' before Swansea regained the lead on 88', landing another £20 profit.

This game ended up returning my biggest profit of the night, largely thanks to the in-play stats.

AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal

The agony of being a Bournemouth fan... though it's not all bad these days!

Team Stats showed me that Bournemouth had scored in 5/6 home games against top half teams and that Arsenal had gone BTS in all of their away games against top half teams, though I'm not sure that Bournemouth fit that description too strongly just yet.

I danced in the street as the Cherries took a 2-0 first half lead! However, after many years of watching Bournemouth surrender leads against the likes of Darlington, Rochdale and Shrewsbury, I was nervous.

On 30' I layed Bournemouth in the half-time market at 1.02 which cost me just £1.07 in order to potentially bank £60 profit. There was every chance of Arsenal pulling a quick goal back and then I could have traded, but it was more of a speculative effort.

At half-time - and with a profit already locked in from the first halves at Stoke and Palace - I decided to cover some goals markets.

In my previous case study, I had layed the underdog and backed the favourite, but that was 0-1 with the favourite at home. On this occasion, I didn't necessarily expect Arsenal to win (I hoped they wouldn't!) but they had to go all out attack and would, perhaps, get hit on the break.

By laying U4.5 goals at 1.70 I would have an Arsenal comeback win covered, but also a 3-2/4-1 win for Bournemouth; it was much more flexible.

As they were so cheap, I also layed U5.5, U6.5, U7.5 and U8.5 goals. After all, it was only a few weeks previously that Liverpool were 0-2 up at Bournemouth and lost 4-3.

Incredibly, Bournemouth scored a third goal on 58' and Eddie Howe decided to shut up shop, abandoning the attacking play which had been working so well all night. A couple of defensive subs later and Arsenal pulled a goal back.

At this point, I decided to green up my U4.5 lay to guarantee a profit of £8.23. It more than covered my other lays and, at 3-1, Bournemouth were still two goals ahead and trying to kill the game.

It then went 3-2 but, rather than green up my U5.5 lay, I covered liability only and left all the profit on the overs. There were two reasons for this:

1. Arsenal were now only one goal down so would give everything they had until the final whistle, whereas at two goals down they'd be a little less motivated as time ran out.
2. I had already ensured a profit from these speculative trades to add to my other profits on the night, so I had no problem with letting this one run for the potential of a bigger profit.

Arsenal's equaliser came on 90+2' (along with many, many bad words from my mouth!) but it gave me another £16.63 profit.

So, from this game I made a total of £21.46.

Trading Summary

There are trading angles in most games, but the art of a trader is to find strong opportunities at the right prices.

At Stoke I fancied a home win, but I didn't simply back Stoke at 1.80 or so before the game. I waited for confirmation that they were playing as expected and found a much better price; better risk/reward.

If it had been 0-0 at half-time I still had the second half, but I wouldn't have rushed into anything. If Stoke had gone 1-0 up and I missed a trade, so be it. I don't go for that, "I was just going to back them, gutted I missed out" rubbish. If it was a strong enough trade, I'd have already been in it!

Palace were also odds-on to win, but there was no way on earth I'd have backed them at that price! I expected them to be fired up and win - as teams tend to do under a new manager - but this wasn't Allardyce's first game in charge. I didn't stick doggedly to my pre-match opinion, questioned myself after the in-play stats didn't support it and found a big priced opportunity.

If it had been 0-0 at half-time, I may have found something in the second half or perhaps not. One thing's for sure though... at odds of 7.00 I only need to hit a winner now and again for an overall profit. I know it's not even going to be near a 50% strike rate at that price!

The Bournemouth game was a case of taking advantage of strong favourites bouncing back. I was using profits already banked, so very little risk and I removed all of that by trading at 3-1. As a Bournemouth fan I wanted the game to end 3-0, but as a trader it was a very satisfying profit, albeit at small stakes.

Nope, we don't share email addresses with anyone.

Over at our Trade Your Bets site, Kevin Laverick set out to turn a £1,000 bank into £30,000 within three years by trading football. When you break it down, the maths are very simple; increase your bank by 10% on average per month and by the end of month 36 you'll have £30,913.

Trading stakes for the challenge started at £10 per point and are already up to £29. Of course, stake sizes cannot rise indefinitely, but for now it's no problem to get in and out of trades.

Saturday 31st December 2016 marked exactly a year since the £30k Challenge started and it was pretty much on track, just £218 short of the £3,138 12 month target. Month 13 should be up to £3,452 and it accelerates through 2017 to end at £9,850.

Here is an excerpt from an email sent out to Trade Your Bets members by Kevin:

My starting premise was to trade 100 selections per month, with an average liability of 1 point on each trade, and to maintain an edge of 10%. If I could do that I would be able to manage the feat.

So I was looking to trade 1200 games per year... in fact in this first year I have only traded 600 games. Just half of what my aim was. By only trading half the games that makes the task even more difficult than it was in the first place.

I intended my average liability to be 1 point per trade... in fact it was only 0.75 point per trade. Obviously this meant that my staking was slightly wrong, by around 25%. Again this would make the task harder too.

My aim was to maintain an edge of 10% through the year... in fact I did better than that. The actual ROI for the year as a whole was 22.5%, more than double the intended figure. If I could maintain that sort of edge it would of course make the task easier.

In total figures I started with a Bank of £1,000 and it now stands at £2,920, with an ROI of 22.5%.

If you look at the P/L worm you will see that there has been no discernible downturns at all during the year. There have been a couple of flat spots in April and September, but apart from those it has been a tale of an upward progression, and hopefully I can keep that going in 2017.

If I can treble the Bank each year then that would mean I would be within touching distance of the target after 3 years.

• Year 1 £1k to £3k
• Year 2 £3k to £9k
• Year 3 £9k to £27k

So I am not a million miles away from my target at the end of the first year, even though I only played half the games I needed to and used far less stake than I needed to. In fact, had I played double the games and used larger stakes I would be standing with a Bank of £11.4k already, at the ROI of 22.5%. So things are pretty much on target.

In Year 2 what I will be striving to do is to increase the number of games I play and use bigger stakes. To this end I will be looking for around 100 trades each month and my maximum liability on any trade will be 2 points, but more generally it will be between 1 to 1.5 point.

During the year I will be introducing you to new markets that you may not have used before, and introducing you to new ways of trading that you may not have seen before. What I don't want to do though is to drop my ROI below 10%. In fact it would be a fantastic year if I could maintain it somewhere near the 20% I managed in 2016.

Kevin Laverick 
Professional Trader

Kevin posts the trades he is looking at ahead of kick-off in the Trade Your Bets Members Area and sends out an email review of how he traded each one. From these reviews, members learn new trading techniques and apply them to future £30k Challenge selections or their own trades.

In order that results are fully verified, accurate and honest, Kevin posts his trading moves in-play in the Goal Profits chat room. This also allows those who are members of both Trade Your Bets and Goal Profits to follow along live.

Of course, if you join Trade Your Bets now and want to follow the £30k Challenge, you can do that. Start with a £1,000 bank - less if you want to - and follow the selections throughout the year.

Once Kevin hits his £30k target he may continue upward or start again. There's at least a couple of years to figure that out.

As the profit targets accelerate, it will become tougher to stay on track. Even if it takes an extra year to complete though, who would be unhappy with a £30,000 trading bank?

Becoming a professional Betfair trader is the ultimate dream for many, whether it be football trading, tennis, horses or something else entirely. It's certainly achievable - there are people doing it - but how do you go from frustrated gambler to trading Betfair for a living?

In this post I'll talk about expectations and motivation, what a sports trader does day to day, what you can look forward to as a full-time trader and how to actually get there.

What are your expectations?

I really hope that this doesn't come as a surprise to you, but... you will never be able to buy a few systems, quit your job and then start to pull money out of the betting exchanges the next morning. They are not magical ATMs and it is not possible to find systems which "unlock the secrets of Betfair for five minutes work each week".

If you have searched for something like, "how to make money on Betfair fast" or the "easiest way to make money betting" you're going to need to change your mindset quite considerably before you can even think about sports trading for a living.

After all, the only thing you can do fast on Betfair is blow your bank!

If you are planning to rely on that bank to pay your way through life, you'd better make sure that your number one priority is to protect it.

Another thing... while it is possible to learn the fundamentals, you can only become an experienced trader by trading. Sounds obvious when it's put like that, but you would not believe the amount of people who start trading football and immediately expect to make money.

And how could that even be possible?

Think about it... Betfair is full of very clever and ruthless traders whose sole intention is to take your money. What makes anyone think that they are going to outsmart these other traders as soon as they start trading?

As Kevin Laverick found out - having played and managed football at a good level - sports knowledge doesn't get you very far; it's all about risk/reward, probabilities, discipline, patience and so on.

So... from day one, make sure that your expectations are reasonable and realistic; becoming a professional sports trader is going to take time and hard work.

Find your motivation

Ask yourself... why do you want to trade on Betfair for a living?

If it's because you want to impress your mates down the pub, you're going to struggle to remain motivated when the going gets tough. If you dream of laying on a desert island and logging into Betfair every now and again to top up your bank account, you're living in a fantasy world.

So why is it that you are reading this?

There are lots of emotions which drive our motivations; love and hate perhaps being the strongest. Why do you want to make money on Betfair? What is going to keep you focused and drive you forward?

Here are some examples:

What are your motivations?​

Focus more on the positives than the negatives; your hopes and dreams rather than fears. Positive emotions are stronger and longer lasting. After all, you will love your family long after you've left the job you hate.​

The more motivations you can find, the better. When trading seems difficult - or even impossible - you will refer back to your list, re-focus, clear your head and try again. Without strong motivation, you are far more likely to quit and that doesn't get you anywhere.

What does a sports trader do?

If you think that football traders sit down all day watching football, you're probably going to be disappointed. Apart from watching football socially, I can't remember the last time I watched a game while trading - it's just not necessary.

I do know of some traders who watch football matches and even a few who believe that they can "read a game" but the vast majority can't do that. Of course, everyone is different and if you want to watch matches as you trade, you can absolutely do that.

Many football traders don't watch the games they're trading

Football trading is more about maths and probability than it is about football. It will be much more useful for you to know the probability of a first half goal than it will be to know whether Wayne Rooney is playing or not.

Of course, team news can present scalping opportunities but that's another discussion.

In order to make a profit, football traders identify strong opportunities and then find good risk/reward in the markets. That's all there is to it; I show you exactly how easy it is in this case study.

I would say that 90% of my time is spent carrying out research, while the other 10% is spent trading. I analyse upcoming fixtures in order to identify trading angles, test new systems and, of course, I monitor existing systems to ensure that they are still profitable.

It's certainly not a case of building a portfolio of trading systems and then trading for the next 20 years. Betfair markets are constantly evolving and traders must move with them - or fail.

With that in mind, make sure that you allocate a good proportion of your time to system analysis (or subscribe to a service such as Goal Profits which does it for you).

When trading becomes your job

Like any job, trading has good and bad points. Personally, I think that there are far more positives!

Perhaps the best part is being able to work from home. There's no commute and no traffic to worry about; your alarm goes off in the morning, you switch the coffee machine on and get to work.

Bear in mind though that you won't have a boss peering over your shoulder and you will have to motivate yourself. Getting up at 10am and then watching daytime TV for a few hours will make you exactly £0.00 profit.

There are lots of ways to self-motivate in order to get tasks done, but money shouldn't be one of them. If you start to worry about paying bills, you're going to fall into the trap of entering weak trades in order to try and hit targets.

What works for me is making a list of tasks and then doing them in the order that they're written down. If I do the easy stuff first, I'm left with the harder tasks and I'm more likely to procrastinate.

I also find that working overnight helps. As well as keeping track of fixtures in North and South America, I can plough through my to-do list without being bombarded by emails. That might not suit you though, especially if you have a family.

Working from home has certain benefits...

A Betfair trader does not have the security of a salary, does not enjoy holiday pay or sick pay when 'man flu' hits. However, if you're making more money than you were in your old job then you can afford to save more - and you should save as much as you can to build your financial security.

Although you can sit in front of the TV with your laptop on your knees, you will be far more productive if you have a dedicated work space. Shut yourself away, work through your to-do list and then relax in front of the TV once you're done.

There are certainly times when I trade while watching TV, but I will have already done my research on the games and I can hit 'pause' if I need to concentrate for a few minutes.

Explain to your partner that, when Flashscores lets out a cheer for a goal, it's time for you to work. Even if it's just for a few seconds, you need some peace and quiet in order to check trading positions. It really helps when your partner knows what that noise means!

Steve Brown
Professional Trader

In my early trading days, I manually updated stats spreadsheets every day because no website provided all the trading stats necessary - and I still haven't found a single one which does. There are plenty of free stats websites out there, but they're all aimed at hobby gamblers who sign up to their bookie offers. These sites are of little use to professional traders.

Even tracking a dozen or so leagues during the winter would take a huge amount of time - and that was before I even traded or worked on developing and testing new systems. I would regularly clock up 80+ hours per week in order to get it all done.

Thankfully, the Team Stats software at Goal Profits takes most of that time-consuming admin work away and I simply couldn't trade without it these days. Rather than limited stats over a small number of leagues, I have every number I could ever dream of for 65 leagues worldwide - and no human-error mistakes to spot and correct. Team Stats has been literally life-changing!

I now spend less time researching trades, but I am able to dig into the numbers in much more detail. Doing this has transformed my trading results and given me much more time to develop other trading angles.

Stats are the tools of the trade (no pun intended!) and only the best will ever be good enough.

Finally - and this is something which most new traders don't even consider - you must dedicate time to your health. You will be spending a lot of time at your desk rather than walking to work, wandering around the office, unloading a delivery van, or whatever it was that would get your body moving.

Why not stand while trading?

Here are some health tips:

In other words, make sure you move and burn some calories!

And on the subject of calories... watch what you eat. It's very easy to sit at your desk all day and snack, so don't keep a bag of toffees in your top drawer! Just as with trading itself, be disciplined.

Remember... healthy body, healthy mind.

Put a plan together

Ok... so you've decided that you really want to become a pro trader and you have identified strong motivations which are going to be your fuel.

Now, you need a plan. Exactly how are you going to make this happen?

Proof

Unless you're crazy, you're not going to quit your job before learning how to trade and proving that you have the experience and discipline to make a long-term profit. So the first stage is to show that you can do it. You might not need to prove it to your partner too, if he or she isn't sure!

It is very difficult to put a time-frame on this part so you're going to have to be flexible. Aim for an absolute minimum of six profitable months in a row - preferably more - in order to prove to yourself (and your partner) that you're ready.

And be honest with yourself... this isn't a bragging contest so be sure to record results properly.

This is the stage at which quitters quit, usually picking out a poor excuse to explain why it's 'not their fault'. "I don't have time" is the most common, followed by "I'm too busy at work". Both of those are absolute rubbish. If you want it enough, you find a way - same as anything in life.

Hardly anyone quits after the 'proof' stage; after this it's just a matter of time.

Transition

Once you've proven to yourself that you are disciplined and skilled enough to trade profitably over a good amount of time, decide how you're going to make the transition from 'worker' to 'trader'.

You could, of course, just quit your job and immediately dedicate all of your time to football trading. A handful of Goal Profits members have done that, but it's a very aggressive approach and not something I'd be comfortable with myself.

A better way is to save up until you have enough to cover your bills for the next six months (minimum). There are two big benefits to this method:

1. Your trading decisions will not be under pressure from day one
2. All the profit you make for the next six months (or more) will strengthen your trading bank

My recommendation is to transition gradually from full-time working to part-time working/trading, then from part-time working/trading to full-time trading. This can be done over many months so that you do not put yourself under pressure.

You may even be able to stay with your current employer and gradually cut hours or, if getting out of that job is one of your motivations, look for something else.

Settling in

It's likely to be quite a change for you - and your family - when you become a full-time trader.

You will be spending much more time at home and that takes some adjustment. After all, a bit of space tends to be good for relationships. You will also have a completely new routine to settle into; including your new health regime!

You're also going to view money differently. Whereas before it would magically arrive in your bank account every month on payday, that won't be the case any longer. You will be working for every penny you make and that is likely to make you very protective of it!

This one really does take time to adjust to and it's why I recommend going part-time first; it's much easier to make these changes and get used to them before you're 'all in'.

You may even find yourself in the same position as a number of Goal Profits members who have started the transition and stuck at part-time because they enjoy it so much.

They still get out of the house to work - though it's far less stressful - and then they get the enjoyment of trading too. Best of both worlds!

If trading turns out not to be all you dreamed of, then you can always go back to work again... but I bet you don't!

Put your plan into action

Trading isn't easy, otherwise no-one would go to work on a Monday morning. It is more about mindset than it is systems and strategies, and that takes time to develop. There are no shortcuts!

The vast majority who set out to become full-time traders will not succeed. Many will quit because they are too lazy and thought it was all glamour and riches, while others simply don't want it enough.

Most will end up trading part-time - and that's a great place to be. You can earn a significant amount from trading part-time which will pay for a few luxuries in life or help build a retirement fund.

The only certainty is that everyone is different. Decide what you want and GO FOR IT!

Lay the draw – also known as LTD – is one of the oldest Betfair football trading strategies.

As Betfair has grown in popularity and betting exchange markets evolved, football traders have had to adjust the way they select and trade matches.

This series of videos is based on an original LTD trading article. If you would prefer to read the text version, click the button below.

Part 1: How Does Lay the Draw Work?

Part 2: How Has Lay the Draw Changed?

Part 3: Is it Still Worth Bothering With LTD?

Part 4: LTD Match Selection

Part 5: Use Insurance or Not?

Part 6: Trading Out & Managing Losses?

Part 7: Metaltone Strategy

Part 8: How I Lay the Draw Nowadays

On Wednesday 18th January, Nantes played Caen in France's Ligue 1. At first glance there was nothing of interest from a trading point of view, but I set out to dig deeper into our Team Stats pages in case there was something I could use at some stage of the game.

I ended up making a simple set-and-forget profit of £50 and here's exactly how I did it.​

The Research

Firstly, I looked at the main trading stats. I saw plenty of red, but not much green. In fact, the only consistent green came in Caen's away games against bottom half teams.

I then looked at the league table analysis page in the Goal Profits Members Area. That was a similar tale of woe, with Nantes bottom of the home table and Caen bottom of the away table! Both teams were also below par in the first half and second half tables.

The only point of interest was Nantes being 9th and Caen 10th in the form table, but even that was skewed. While Nantes were riding high (5th) in the away form table, at home they were 16th. And Caen were placed 5th in the home form table, but 18th away.

I did find something in the bottom half table; Nantes' record at home v bottom half teams was W2 D1 L1 while Caen had gone W0 D0 L4 away. When digging further, I saw that both of Nantes' victories were 1-0 and the draw was 0-0. The loss was 0-3 and I couldn't see that happening in this game.

I knew from earlier that Caen's games away at bottom half teams had seen goals. However, these 4 were the only away games that Caen had scored in and Nantes had kept a clean sheet in 4/9 games at home.

Click to enlarge

I was leaning heavily towards a low scoring game, perhaps 0-0/1-0, considering the facts that Caen had only kept a single clean sheet away and 3/4 Nantes home games had ended on those scores.

The Goal Patterns Team Stats page was interesting; showing me that Caen had not taken the lead in any of their 9 away games this season. I could also see that Nantes had scored first at home only 3 times and 2 of those ended 1-0.

Again, that pointed to a low scoring game - perhaps even 0-0. After all, I already knew that Nantes had scored in only 4 of their 9 home games and Caen had only scored in 4/9 away.

Checking the Betfair markets, Nantes were favourites though priced well above 2.00. Under 2.5 goals was priced at 1.70 which meant the markets agreed that a low scoring game was most likely.​

The Decision

So now came the interesting part... looking for the best risk/reward.

I was prepared to risk up to £100, so here were the options I considered:

I liked the look of option 5 and checked the 'Early Bird' strategy page in the Goal Profits Members Area. This showed 45% value for Nantes to score first, but not much liquidity. That was ok as I would not need to trade out.

The Bet

There was a lot to support 0-0/1-0 and I decided to go with the 'Next Goal' market. It meant I'd be in a winning position at 0-0 and a goal for Nantes would land the full profit with no need to trade.

I placed my bet after 15 minutes had been played, just to make sure that the game started as expected. I didn't want to see Caen forcing lots of shots and corners, though Nantes attacking would have been fine.

It did cost me a little more to wait as the price rose to 3.10, but it was worth that to be able to check how the game had started. My liability was slightly higher than £100 too, in order to target exactly£50 profit after commission.

Trading Mindset

Had I missed a Nantes goal by waiting, that would be ok - no risk and no loss. Yes, I miss a number of (would be) winners but - much more importantly - I miss (would be) losers.​

I don't get annoyed by missing out on opportunities like many novice traders do. It's a question of mindset; being prepared to wait for the perfect conditions before putting my money at risk.

There's a reason why impatient traders lose money long-term; and not just when trading football on Betfair either!

As the game approached an hour played, the score was still 0-0. I was still in a winning position.

The in-play stats at this point were 3-1 corners and 11-5 shots in favour of Nantes which was just what I wanted to see. Of course, it only takes one shot for a goal so I was still in danger of losing my £100 and I decided to look at options for trading out - or at least reducing the liability.​

I could have removed my liability, but I would have also be losing 60% of my potential profit. I decided that with the in-play stats firmly in my favour, I would hang on for another 10 minutes and then check prices again.

I could have also traded out, securing around £15 profit no matter which team scored first (or didn't).

Time decay was working with me, increasing the price to back Caen with every passing minute and, therefore, increasing my potential profit should I have wished to trade out.​

The Winner

On 65' the home team scored the goal I'd been waiting for and my £50 profit was in the bank. ​The game ended 1-0 - as expected - and my trading for the day was done.

A dead easy winner, identified by digging into our Team Stats pages. I know nothing about either team, their players or manager; and nor do you have a need to. In order to make consistent profits, all you need is access to the Goal Profits Members Area - click here.

£50 profit from no more than 5 minutes ​of research and that's the monthly subscription covered, plus a profit on top. Now, the next 29 days worth of profits are free!

I have written a number of case studies which explain just how quick and easy it is to profit from football trading with Team Stats.

A couple of days ago I published this article which shows a simple £50 profit banked from the game between Nantes and Caen. Tonight, I took that £50 and found another strong trade to profit from.

Friday evenings during the winter generally have a French Ligue 1 fixture, a German Bundesliga fixture, one from the Dutch Eredivisie and something in the Spanish Primera. Fridays also feature busy league programmes in the French Ligue 2 and Dutch Jupiler.

Lots to choose from and plenty of temptation. If you want to make a long-term profit from football trading on Betfair, you simply must avoid weak trades and go after the very best opportunities only.

The Research

Scanning through the 'League Table Analysis' page (which all Goal Profits members have full access to) Ajaccio v Orléans stands out very clearly.

All is looking good so far, the only stat I don't like is...

However, I'm happy to discount it on this occasion due to the strength of the other stats and the fact that Orléans' overall away record is W0 D2 L7.

When I switch over to the Team Stats 'Goal Patterns' page I see that Ajaccio have taken the lead in 7/10 home games. They fell behind in their other 3 home games, but all of them then went 1-1. Orléans have only taken the lead in 3/9 away and each of those 3 went 1-1.

Therefore, if I were to back Ajaccio and the score went 0-1 with plenty of time left, I could lay Orléans and reasonably expect an equaliser. Good to know.

The 'Trading Stats' page shows me that Ajaccio have scored in all 10 of their home games this season, while Orléans have conceded in 7/9 away. While Ajaccio have also conceded in 7/10 at home, Orléans have only managed to score in 3/9 away (a total of 4 goals).

I can also see that Ajaccio have scored in 7/10 first halves at home, whereas Orléans have scored in 3/9 first halves away - and no second halves at all.

On the face of it, I'm looking at a home win. It could possibly be 1-1 at half-time if Orléans get a goal, but then I'd expect Ajaccio to go on and win in the second half (they've scored in 6/10 second halves). So perhaps a 2-0/2-1 final score.

The Trade

The Betfair Match Odds market offered a generous 2.32 for the home win. Considering the strength of the stats I'd uncovered, that represented fantastic value.

At that price, I only need a 50% set-and-forget strike rate for a profit overall and, if I keep doing that over and over, my bank will grow very nicely.

I also had the option of trading at any time that Ajaccio were in the lead in order to reduce - or completely remove - the liability.

I backed the home win at 2.32 for £50 and let the game go in-play.​

Ajaccio were well on top by half-time, leading the corner count 4-1 and the shot count 9-1. It was exactly what I wanted to see, all that was missing was a goal.

After 70 minutes had been played, the in-play stats had risen further; corners 7-3 and shots 17-2. ​I was very confident of a goal, but layed the draw just in case the home side were caught out.

It increased my liability, but covered a goal for either team and virtually doubled my profit on Ajaccio. This more aggressive approach doesn't suit all traders, but pays off in the right circumstances.

The Winner

Ajaccio got their winning goal on 74' and I secured a profit, just in case there happened to be an equaliser.

A very simple trade, based on rock solid stats and a generous market price. And that's all there is to football trading; find strong opportunities at good prices, rinse and repeat, watch your bank grow.

Here are some free football stats we've put together to introduce you to our unique Team Stats software. These stats are updated daily for all 65 worldwide leagues we cover, so you may well find some winners too!

Even the first Team Stats page you will have access to as a Goal Profits member has far more information for every upcoming fixture, but you will get a good idea of what to expect below.

You can see kick-off times, home and away teams (with their league positions in brackets) and then the number of games played this season (home team at home, away team away).

The next three columns show the percentage of games won, drawn and lost by each team. Again, these are home games won by the home team and away games won by the away team.​

Following those, you have the percentage of games for each team which went over 1.5 goals, over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals. Finally, there's a 'BTS' column which stands for 'Both Teams to Score'.

Hover over column headings for explanations of the stats, click on team names ​to see all of their home and away scores this season (half-time as well as full-time) and click on the league name to see the current league table.

Note: Goal Profits members have access to 30+ tables for each league, including home, away, form, attack, defence, etc. There's also a 'League Table Analysis' page which identifies fantastic value bets and trades in no time at all.

The full version provides every football trading stat that anyone needs. We have a number of professional, full-time traders who are Goal Profits members purely for Team Stats... it's that good!

Since first developing Team Stats in 2013, we have been constantly finding ways to improve it. There are updates - even complete pages - being worked on throughout the year so that our members continue to enjoy a significant advantage over everyone else trading on Betfair.

It's not just the "quick and easy" aspect either; I simply couldn't keep stats for this many leagues before and missed countless opportunities for profit.

Free stats sites - we all know them - are not designed with football traders in mind and don't provide everything we need. All they want to do is attract gamblers who sign up to their bookie offers.

I know from experience that my profits significantly increased once I had access to Team Stats and many members have found exactly the same.

Far too many traders still think that the key to long-term success is hitting lots of winners. We all need winners, of course, but the focus for smart traders is always on value. After all, find value consistently and profits will follow.

Tonight, many gamblers were 'lumping on' the likes of Manchester United to beat Hull and Newcastle to beat QPR at silly odds and neither of them won!

I wasn't planning to trade this evening, but I was chatting to Kevin on the phone and decided to write another case study, similar to the others I've done recently. If you missed them, click here to read how I made 4.67pts profit in 2 hours (or keep reading this one - I made a bigger profit this time!).

Before the fixtures kicked off I spent 15 minutes scanning Team Stats for strong trading opportunities. I picked out 5 trades and they all went on to win.

It simply doesn't get any quicker or easier to make a good profit from football trading on Betfair. I didn't even use large stakes, just small affordable amounts.

Here's exactly how I made £49.77 football trading profit from 5 value trades:

Stoke v Everton

This was dead simple. Stoke had been leading at half-time in 4 of their last 5 home games, while Everton had not been leading in any away game this season. I considered backing Stoke to win the first half, but Everton had been level at half-time in their last 4 away games.

I decided to back the half-time draw at 2.32 (£10) and lay Everton (first half) at 3.30 (£10). I was planning to lay some of the profit from the draw after 20 minutes or so in order to reduce the red on Everton, but Stoke took an early lead. This left me with scratch on the home win and a nice profit on the draw; a very safe position.

Everton equalised on 39' and I was able to lay the draw to secure £16.49 profit.

Backing Stoke to win the first half would have been a profit too as I'd have traded at 1-0. I don't know if it would have been more or less as I didn't track price movements, but either way was good.

The key was matching up Stoke's strong first half performance at home and Everton's poor first half record away. A gold star to Team Stats for providing that information.

Blackburn v Leeds

Blackburn are struggling this season, but Team Stats showed me that they play much better at home than away. They had only been behind at half-time once in their last 9 home games and that was to league leaders Brighton. Leeds had only been ahead twice at half-time away all season and their away stats were all well below their home performance.

I did exactly the same here as at Stoke; backed the half-time draw at 2.10 (£10) and layed Leeds to be leading at half-time at 3.30 (£10). I started to lay profit from the draw around the 25' mark and by the time 35 minutes had been played, I was left with £6.13 profit if it stayed 0-0, £5.00 profit if Leeds were to score or £36.41 if Blackburn were able to sneak a goal.

The score at half-time was 0-0 and that was another profit in the bank.

These two first half trades were fairly aggressive as a goal the wrong way would have left me with work to do. However, I had the two most likely outcomes covered in each and I was comfortable with the risk/reward.

That was enough trading for the first half and I moved on to a couple of full match opportunities.

Hearts v Rangers

This was not the strongest, but Team Stats showed me that Hearts were slightly better at home while Rangers were a little below their average performance away. For example, Hearts were 4th in the overall league table but 3rd in the home table and 3rd in the first half table, while Rangers were 2nd in the league overall but 3rd in the away table (6th in the first half table).

Remember I talked about value?

What really sealed this trade was that I could back Hearts at 3.25 (£10). A strong home team at home to a slightly weaker away team at that price was too good to refuse, especially as Hearts had already beaten Rangers 2-0 at home this season. What value!

It was 1-0 after 4' and I immediately layed Hearts at 1.80 (£10) so that if they didn't win, I wouldn't lose a penny. Now I had a free bet. Early in the second half the score was 3-1 and I locked in £12.11 profit no matter what else happened.

Great risk/reward here; £10 to win £12.11 at 121% ROI (return on investment). Remember too that after only 4 minutes had been played, it was zero risk as I had traded!

Partick v St Johnstone

A similar story with this one. According to Team Stats, St Johnstone generally play above their position in away games, while Partick struggle at home.

Add the fact that earlier in the season this very same fixture had ended 0-2 and I was happy to back St Johnstone at 2.96 (£10). It just seemed as though the market was completely wrong.

I was a little worried in-play with Partick dominating the shot and corner counts, so when it went 0-1 I locked in a profit of £7.82. The final result was 0-1, but I was out with my profit long before then.

Burton v Fulham

Team Stats showed me that Fulham were 11th in the overall league table but:

• 6th in the away table
• 2nd in the first half away table
• 9th in second half away table
• 10th in the away form table
• 3rd best away attack
• 5th best away defence

Burton were largely performing at the level of their overall league position, but bottom of the home form table. Their first half performance at home was better and Fulham were only 1.93 to back, so I let the game go in-play. I don't like backing under 2.00 - especially away teams.

Around the 40' mark, Fulham were well on top going by the shot and corner counts, so I backed the away win at 2.24 (£10). It was 0-1 on 48' and I greened up for £7.23 profit.

With the favourites ahead, playing well and profits locked in elsewhere I could have let it run - the game ended 0-2 - but by that point I was happy to bank the extra profit and seal a good evening.

Summary

A couple of first half trades, two full match trades and one in-play for a nice balance to the evening.

As I said right at the top, my research took ​around 15 minutes and then the trades themselves needed very little time. I reacted to goals here and there, but during the two hours that the games were in-play I watched a movie. It's not bad being paid to do that!

I banked almost £50 profit from no more than 30 minutes of my time yet there will still be some who try to tell me that football trading takes too long. Can you believe that?!

So... was tonight some sort of fluke?

Well, these are in-play trades I have posted in the Goal Profits trading chat room recently. I told members exactly what I was backing/laying so that they could follow if they wished.

(£1,286 profit to flat £100 stakes)

Of course, all members can achieve these sorts of results on their own with a bit of practice as they have access to exactly the same information as me. The key is being determined to succeed, rather than quitting at the first sign that Betfair isn't some sort of magic ATM which spits out money.

If you're keen to start trading football on Betfair with us, click here for all the details.

On Tuesday 28th February, 2017 there were a number of English fixtures; especially in the lower leagues. I picked out five fixtures of interest and ended up with a profit of £110.35 (after Betfair commission) even though my 'banker' for the night went very wrong.

A couple of goals the right way late on would have boosted my profit to around £350, but you'll never hear me complain about my trading bank getting bigger!

When looking at multiple football matches, it's important to view them as just one big trade and adjust accordingly. As all successful football traders will tell you, avoiding losses is far more important than hitting winners so always have an eye on the bigger picture.

My Daily Shortlist

As always, I carried out all of my research before any of the matches kicked off. As well as allowing me to concentrate fully when matches are in-play, it also ensures that I don't make any hasty - and emotional - decisions if things are going wrong.

I will often allow myself one "off-piste" trade per session, but I didn't need anything tonight.

This was my shortlist:

Of course, I don't need a home team to win in order to make a profit from a home win trade, I just need them to get in front at some point.

Staking

We all know that compounding is very powerful; that is increasing stakes in line with bank size.

For example, if you divide a £1,000 trading bank into 100pts and make 10pts profit each month - resetting the value of a point at the beginning of each month - after just three years your bank will be worth £30,000.

10pts per month... that's around 0.3pts per day. Just £3 profit from a £1,000 bank.

Why doesn't everyone just do that? It's so simple when broken down!

Well... most inexperienced traders are impatient and go for bigger wins. They are probably used to the adrenaline rush of gambling and treat football trading more as entertainment than a serious profit-making venture. Then there are many who reach their daily target but don't stop trading.

As always, mindset and discipline will make or break you as a trader.

With that small daily target in mind, I definitely didn't need to go in all guns blazing. I picked out Northampton Town v Oldham Athletic as my 'banker' for the night and built the other trades around it. Small profits here and there would chip away at a larger liability, should all go wrong.

You will also notice that I spread my trades around the first half, second half and 90 minutes (home and away). They also vary in price, from 2.10 all the way up to 4.30.

First Half Trades

Just one 'true' first half trade - Hartlepool United v Crewe Alexandra. I originally intended to go for Hartlepool to score first, but there was no money in the 'Next Goal' market. Most games have a first half goal, so it follows that backing Hartlepool to win the first half is a similar trade. It is restricted, of course, to the first 45 minutes but the price is much higher. Swings and roundabouts.

I backed Hartlepool to win the first half at 3.90 (£10) and set up a lay on the draw at 1.80 (£15). That was a total of £22 liability, but a nice green on the home win and small green on the away win should Crewe score.

I also backed Hartlepool to score first at 2.30 (£10) though it wasn't matched even half an hour into the game. The 'Next Goal' market at Betfair suffers from poor liquidity in the smaller leagues.

With my two 90' trades I backed Northampton to win at 2.22 (£50) and Sutton to win at 2.26 (£10). It was a much smaller amount at Sutton because of less liquidity in the market and the fact it was a National League game, so less consistent performances from teams.

Oldham took the lead at Northampton on 23'. This was a surprise since Northampton had taken the lead in 11/16 home games and Oldham had fallen behind in 10/17 away. However, I had gone in with half the full stake I had allowed for the trade and that gave me something to work with. I layed Oldham at 1.84 (£60) which took my liability up to £100.

Sutton took the lead on 31' and I immediately layed them at 1.25 (£10) so that it was now a no-lose bet.

In the game at Bradford, it had gone 0-1 on 4' and then 1-1 on 22'. I decided to back MK Dons for £25 in a series of £5 bets as the price rose. However, only two of them were matched before the away team went back in front on 35'. Again, I layed to give myself a no-lose bet on the away win. Just as well too, with Bradford equalising for a second time on 43'.

There had been plenty of corners and shots at Hartlepool, but it took until 45' for the home side to score. The 'Next Goal' back had also been matched, so a total of £54.27 profit in the pot.

Half-Time Position

At half-time, I had a good profit already banked at Hartlepool and a couple of free bets at Sutton and Bradford. I could have locked in a profit at Sutton, but they were ahead 3-0 on corners and 11-3 on shots so I felt quite safe to leave it a while.

My only concern at this point was Northampton, though they were leading the corner count 5-1 and the shot count 10-8. As long as they were able to equalise, I'd be able to lock in a profit for the evening.

Northampton had won their last three at home and scored in 13/16 home games in total, while Oldham had only won one of their last six away and conceded in 13/17.

It wasn't a bad position to be in.

Second Half Trades

Barnet were already leading at Blackpool and went 0-2 up soon after half-time, so I couldn't get into that one. Reassuring that I had picked a strong trade though.

Do I worry when I 'miss out' on 'winners'? Of course not, I concentrate on the trades I have running. I'd much rather wish I was in a trade than out of one, that's for sure!

Bradford v MK Dons was looking pretty level from the in-play stats. An away goal would have been useful to hedge against my liability at Northampton, but it didn't come.

Sutton continued to dominate their game but it remained 1-0, so I decided to lock in £7.64 profit around the 70' mark.

That was a total of £61.91 profit locked in, but I needed Northampton to do something.

The in-play stats at Sixfields were fairly level and on 75' I decided to lay Under 1.5 Goals at 1.95 (£52.50). This added £50 liability to my trade, but that was covered already by profit in the bank. I could have waited for a lower price to lay more, but I was fairly confident that the home side would start attacking more as time ran out and that would present scoring opportunities at both ends.

Even another away goal would halve my liability and be enough - again treating everything as one big trade - to end up with a profit for the evening.

An equaliser was much more likely though and it came on 84'. I was then able to lay the draw to remove all liability from the away win and guarantee my overall profit. I could have equalised the loss on the draw and away win, but laying more added to the home win - now a potential £210.87 and a goal for Northampton was far from impossible.

I don't mind going a little aggressive in this situation; home team equalises fairly late, home fans get behind their team, away defence gets nervous, etc.

Perhaps Northampton overcooked it a little though as it was Oldham who snatched a winner on 90+2' and a quick lay reduced my loss to virtually nothing in the Match Odds market.

That made my £49.98 profit from the Over/Under 1.5 Goals market worth a lot more so, although I would have loved 2-1, I was still happy with the goal.

Summary

Out of my five planned trades, I managed to get into four of them.

Had I gone with set-and-forget bets I'd have hit two winners and two losers, but by trading I ended up with three profits and a scratch. I was a little disappointed that MK Dons took the lead twice and only ended with a draw, but they were underdogs and expected to lose.

Had Northampton scored a late winner rather than Oldham, my profit for the night would have been more than £300! Sure, it could have also ended 0-1 for a loss but the stats follow through long-term and the odd losing day is no problem at all.​

As soon as I banked the first half profit at Hartlepool, I had some green in the bank and knew my downside was far less than my potential profits. That gave me the confidence to be more aggressive at Northampton, which paid off nicely.

With some experience and patience, football trading is incredibly profitable. Our exclusive Team Stats software does most of the work, making research very quick indeed.

I spent no more than 15 minutes picking out these five trades this evening. I had my trading plan written down, put a movie on and ended the evening more than £100 better off.

Now to spend 15 minutes researching tomorrow's fixtures!

One of the most common mistakes we see from inexperienced traders is 'fiddling about'. Far too many think that they need to be forever tweaking their positions, when the best course of action is usually to do nothing.

It's often the same people who then complain that trading takes too much time... no wonder!​

I had a trade this evening in Scotland which didn't go to plan at first, but rather than feeling the need to lay this and back that, I was patient and waited for the right times to take action.

There are times when football trades simply go wrong and you have to take a loss. ​No-one on this planet makes a profit every time, but successful traders know when to increase liability in the hope of recovering some money, or accept that it's going to end red and move on.

In the end it was a fantastic profit and 250% ROI. Here's how my trade panned out.

After banking a profit of £110.35 yesterday, I looked through the fixtures for this evening to see if I could spot any trading opportunities. There was nothing standing out to me in England or France, then I looked at the Scottish Premiership fixtures.

Team Stats showed me that St Johnstone played above their overall league position of 5th in almost every category, whereas Rangers largely played below their overall 3rd position at home.

Digging a little further, I saw that St Johnstone had lost to Celtic this season, but drawn at all of the other top four teams; Aberdeen 0-0, Hearts 2-2 and Rangers 1-1.

I was quite surprised to find that I could back St Johnstone to win at 6.00 and the draw at 4.30. It seemed that - as per usual - Rangers had been backed down with little regard to their actual probability of winning the game; not at all uncommon with big teams.

With an away underdog I had no intention of risking too much, nor did I need to with such big prices. I backed St Johnstone to win at 6.00 (£10) and the draw at 4.30 (£15).

Of course, I didn't need an away win at full-time in order to profit from backing St Johnstone, but they had scored first at Rangers earlier in the season and led 1-2 at Hearts. A 0-0 draw would have been fine too!

I left the first half to run, setting up Flashscores on my phone so I could pop back to the computer and take out some liability if it went 0-1. Unfortunately for me though, Rangers took the lead on 22'.

I sat on my hands and did nothing (except continue to watch TV) because an equaliser would put me back into a profitable position.

At this point, many would have layed Rangers or layed 1-0 in the 'half-time score' market on Betfair, but there really wasn't a need to do a thing. An equaliser would have already been great for me, so no need to increase my liability while my trade was still very much recoverable.

The in-play stats favoured the home team at half-time and soon after it was 2-0. Not at all what I wanted! I decided that it was time to take action and layed Rangers at 1.05 (£100). This added just £5 to my initial £25 liability but gave me plenty of green to play with should St Johnstone pull a goal back quickly. I was now in recovery mode and looking for a quick 2-1 so I could scratch the trade.

In fact, it took the away side until 74' to get on the scoresheet. I could have reduced my liability to £10, but decided to stay in and lay U3.5 goals instead so that a goal either way would help out.

While I was looking at options, Rangers picked up a red card. It was now an easy decision to stay in. I could have layed U3.5 goals, but I couldn't see Rangers doing anything but defend and try to see the game out. Again, I did nothing when others would have felt the need to do something - anything.

St Johnstone equalised on 87' and I was able to lay the draw, ensuring an excellent profit whatever else happened in the closing minutes.

I left more on the draw as I had expected the game to end 2-2, but Rangers had other ideas and scored a winner on 90+1'.

Definitely a case of mixed emotions as it cost me £27 profit, but was a first goal at Ibrox for Emerson Hyndman (on loan from Bournemouth) so I wasn't too unhappy, being a Bournemouth fan!

I ended up with £75 profit from my £30 liability and a massive 250% ROI. I'll take that any day of the week and it was all thanks to Team Stats (plus some patience when things went wrong).